Aurisco(SH:605116) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-07-11 04:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the volume trend of Dydrogesterone tablets in Q2 2024 exceeds previous expectations. The company's promotional pace and favorable competitive landscape suggest that the growth of its formulation products will be sustainable. Additionally, the release of production capacity for flexible products like Semaglutide is expected to contribute significantly to performance. The EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 0.96, 1.25, and 1.57 yuan respectively, with the closing price on July 10, 2024, corresponding to a PE of 27 times for 2024 [9][12]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 to 2.15 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 82% to 124%. For Q2 alone, the estimated net profit is around 1.13 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of about 126% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 37% [12]. Investment Highlights - The growth in H1 2024 is attributed to the steady sales growth of advantageous raw materials and the gradual increase in formulation products. The report anticipates that the commercialization of high-barrier raw materials and formulation products will support sustained high growth in revenue and profit from 2024 to 2026. The company’s technology and product layout in the small nucleic acid and peptide fields are expected to open up long-term growth opportunities [9][12]. Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 1.666 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 388 million yuan, with a growth rate of 34.06%. The EPS is expected to reach 0.96 yuan in 2024 [26][27].