石化能源行业2024Q2业绩前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Q2 oil supply has contracted due to geopolitical conflicts and effective OPEC production cuts, while demand in the U.S. remains strong, leading to a decrease in commercial oil inventories. Brent crude oil prices fluctuated, starting at $77 per barrel and rising above $85 per barrel, resulting in a Q2 price increase of 4.0% quarter-on-quarter and 9.4% year-on-year [3][4] - Natural gas transitioned from a demand off-season to a peak season in Q2, with international prices rising. The JKM price increased by 21% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, while domestic LNG prices decreased by 7.7% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, narrowing the arbitrage space [3][4] - Coal prices in Q2 saw a decline due to increased hydropower generation, with Daqin Port Q5500 prices dropping by 5.9% quarter-on-quarter and 7.2% year-on-year. Hami Q5000 prices also fell by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter and 14.0% year-on-year [3][4] - The coal chemical sector experienced a downturn in Q2, with Xinjiang methanol prices decreasing by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter and 13.1% year-on-year, while Xinjiang coal tar prices increased by 7.1% quarter-on-quarter and 14.7% year-on-year [3][4] Summary by Category Oil - Brent crude oil average price for Q2 is $85.03 per barrel, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.0% [4] Natural Gas - JKM LNG landed price for Q2 is $11.25 per million British thermal units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.0% [4] - Domestic LNG landed price for Q2 is $13.87 per million British thermal units, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.7% [4] Coal - Daqin Port Q5500 coal price for Q2 is 848 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.9% [4] - Hami Q5000 coal price for Q2 is 425 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.3% [4] Coal Chemical - Xinjiang methanol price for Q2 is 1935 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.6% [4] - Xinjiang coal tar price for Q2 is 3898 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.1% [4] Amino Acids - The price of lysine continues to decline, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% [4]