GF SECURITIES·2024-07-11 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A / Buy - H" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a long-term advantage as a leading energy player, with performance stability better than peers [1][2] - The forecasted reasonable value is 43.87 CNY per share for A-shares and 35.44 HKD per share for H-shares [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.6-30.6 billion CNY for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of 14.1%-8.1% [3] - The average sales price of coal and the average utilization hours of coal-fired units have decreased, impacting performance [3] - In Q2, the expected net profit is 12.72-14.72 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 13.4%-0.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 19.9%-7.3% [3] - The company’s coal production for the first five months increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with sales up by 5.3% [3] - Power generation for the same period rose by 6.8%, outperforming the industry average growth of 3.6% [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s business model is robust, with expected growth in coal and electricity operations through internal projects and acquisitions [3] - The dividend payout ratio has significantly increased since 2017, with a planned cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% for 2022-2024 [3] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 2.87, 2.91, and 3.01 CNY respectively [3] - The report maintains the "Buy" rating for both A and H shares, with a reasonable value unchanged [3]