ZHIFEI-BIOL(300122) 海通国际·2024-07-11 08:02Investment Rating - The report assigns an "OUTPERFORM" rating to the company with a target price of Rmb 46.2 [1]. Core Insights - The report explores the operational turning point of the company, highlighting its strong grassroots channels, significant R&D investments, and potential growth areas in the HPV and shingles vaccine markets [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Accounts Receivable and Inventory Increase in Q1 2024 - The company's accounts receivable increased by 11% to Rmb 30.03 billion, while inventory rose by 40% to Rmb 12.61 billion, attributed to seasonal factors [3][14]. - The accounts receivable turnover days are significantly lower than peers at 162 days, indicating a low risk of uncollectible accounts [3][16]. 2. Operational Advantages and "Second Curve" - The company boasts a robust grassroots channel with 3,990 sales personnel, far exceeding industry peers, and has secured agency rights for major products from GSK and Merck [4][21]. - Revenue in Q1 2024 grew by 2% year-on-year, indicating the HPV vaccine may be entering a mature phase, with a current vaccination rate of 21% among eligible women [4][24]. - The company is set to officially launch GSK's shingles vaccine in 2024, with projected minimum procurement amounts of Rmb 34.4 billion, Rmb 68.8 billion, and Rmb 103.2 billion for 2024-2026 [4][20]. - The company has a rich pipeline of self-developed products in various stages, including tuberculosis and influenza vaccines, and plans to acquire a company to expand into diabetes and weight loss medications [4][31][34]. 3. Shareholder Return Attributes - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of at least Rmb 10 per 10 shares for 2023 and 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.5% [5][35]. - A share buyback of Rmb 300 million has been completed, and an employee stock ownership plan has been implemented, with 2,910,000 shares purchased [5][36]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are Rmb 9.22 billion, Rmb 11.32 billion, and Rmb 12.71 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 23%, and 12% respectively [8][37]. - The report assigns a P/E ratio of 12x for 2024, leading to a target price of Rmb 46.20, with a market capitalization estimate of Rmb 922 billion to Rmb 1,106 billion [8][39].