东兴证券东兴晨报

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,970.39, up 1.06% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,870.36, up 1.99% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1,685.12, up 2.06% [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,832.33, up 2.06% [1] Capital Market and Brokerage Industry - Capital market reforms and macroeconomic recovery trends are key drivers for the brokerage industry's value recovery [3] - Business model innovation is expected to open up new profit growth opportunities for brokerages [3] - M&A remains a major theme in the industry, with head institutions benefiting from innovative development models and external M&A trends [3] - Securities ETFs provide more investment options for the sector [3] Company Highlights - Beijing KERUI Electric won a bid for the 2024 Southern Power Grid distribution network equipment project, with an estimated contract value of 279 million yuan, accounting for 14.29% of its 2023 audited revenue [4] - Yiling Pharmaceutical received acceptance notice from NMPA for its new drug application of "Anilofos Injection" [45] - Ankai Bus expects to turn a profit in H1 2024, with net profit forecasted between 6.5-8.5 million yuan, compared to a loss of 66.1685 million yuan in the same period last year [46] - Yongshuntai expects H1 2024 net profit to grow 131.80%-200.07% YoY to 146-189 million yuan [103] Dairy Industry - Global milk prices are expected to remain volatile due to sufficient supply and weak demand [9] - China's dairy imports in Jan-May 2024 totaled 1.0946 million tons, down 15% YoY, with import value down 24.6% YoY [8] - Domestic milk prices continue to decline, with June 2024 average price at 3.30 yuan/kg, down 0.53% MoM and 13.55% YoY [77] - Capacity reduction efforts are showing initial results, with daily raw milk production reduced by 4,500 tons since March 2024 [53] Banking Sector - The banking sector PB ratio was 0.59x as of July 5, at the 40th percentile over the past five years [16] - Short-term interest rates declined, with DR001 and DR007 weekly averages down 22BP and 30BP respectively [17] - The sector is expected to benefit from deposit cost improvements and marginal asset quality enhancements [14] - High-dividend banking stocks are seen as attractive in the current low interest rate environment [14] Real Estate Market - 11 cities saw a 66.6% YoY increase in secondary housing sales area in early July [21] - Beijing and Shenzhen secondary housing sales grew 56.5% and 137.7% YoY respectively in early July [21] - 24 cities' cumulative new home sales area in 2024 (Jan 1-Jul 6) decreased 27.5% YoY [24] - A-share real estate index gained 0.81% in the past five trading days, outperforming the broader market [94] Energy Sector - IEA forecasts 2024 oil demand growth at 970,000 barrels/day, up from previous estimate of 960,000 barrels/day [6] - 2025 oil demand growth is projected at 980,000 barrels/day, slightly lower than previous estimate of 1 million barrels/day [6] Technology and Innovation - China successfully established the world's first 6G test network integrating communication and intelligence [41] - The 6G network demonstrates significant improvements in capacity, coverage, and efficiency [41] Machinery Industry - Hanbell Precise Machinery's vacuum pump revenue share increased from 5.07% in 2016 to 42.63% in 2023 [33] - The company is expected to benefit from refrigeration equipment updates, with potential market demand exceeding 35 million units [34] - Hanbell's gross margin improved from 32.63% in 2018 to 40.32% in 2023 [33] Regulatory Updates - CSRC suspended securities lending business and raised margin requirements for short selling [41] - The number of high-frequency trading accounts decreased by over 20% in 2024 [73]