透视A股:历史上三中全会后市场行情如何变化
Guotou Securities·2024-07-11 12:30

Group 1 - The report analyzes the historical performance of the A-share market following the Third Plenary Sessions of the Communist Party, indicating that the market typically experiences a slight decline before the meetings, with mixed performance in the month and three months following the meetings [6][30][32] - Small-cap stocks tend to show significant gains in the three months after the meetings, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite [6][30] - Historically, the market has bottomed out and started to rebound after the Third Plenary Sessions held in 2003, 2008, and 2013, with rebound durations ranging from 5 months to 1 year, reflecting the long-term impact of policy direction and economic expectations [6][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a comprehensive decline last week, with trading volume decreasing compared to the previous week [11][109] - In terms of sector performance, the financial sector saw mixed results, with real estate stocks rising by 0.81% while banks and non-bank financials fell [11][109] - The technology growth sectors showed varied performance, with the pharmaceutical sector increasing by 0.11% while media stocks decreased by 0.59% [11][109] Group 3 - The report notes that the valuation differentiation index for industries has declined recently, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards lower valuation sectors [48] - The report also mentions that the A-share market's relative valuation compared to Hong Kong stocks has decreased, while the valuation of the ChiNext board has also declined relative to US stocks [52][51] - The report provides insights into the current PE and PB levels across various industries, highlighting that real estate and non-bank financials are among the highest in PE ratios, while leisure services and food and beverage sectors have the lowest [110]

透视A股:历史上三中全会后市场行情如何变化 - Reportify