箭牌家居2024H1业绩预告点评:收入端承压,Q2毛利率环比改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [40] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 3.09 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 30 to 40 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 13 to 15 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing year-on-year declines of 10%, 82% to 77%, and 91% to 90% respectively [4][5] - The company is optimistic about its competitiveness in smart products, particularly smart toilets, which continue to be a significant growth driver. The company plans to enhance customer acquisition, improve average transaction value, and optimize its multi-channel layout [5][38] - The company anticipates net profits attributable to the parent company of 412 million, 491 million, and 565 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 14, and 12 times [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 7.675 billion yuan for 2024, with a gross margin of 28% [13] - The company reported a decrease in gross margin by 2.68 percentage points year-on-year for the first half of 2024, but expects a sequential improvement in Q2 [35] - The company’s e-commerce performance has been below expectations, with significant declines in GMV across major platforms [20] Market and Competitive Landscape - The smart toilet segment has shown a 12% increase in revenue, with sales volume up by 30% despite a decline in average price [38] - The company is facing intensified competition in the smart product sector, which may impact product pricing and profitability [23][39] - The overall market conditions, particularly in real estate, have been challenging, affecting demand in the home furnishings sector [20]