机械行业2024年中期投资策略：聚焦周期向上资产和出海，关注低空和人形机器人

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on long-cycle upward assets, overseas expansion, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots as key areas for investment opportunities [3][4] - The oil service equipment sector is expected to benefit from high upstream capital expenditure, with a projected global oil industry upstream capital expenditure of $620 billion in 2024, a 10% increase year-on-year [8][11] - Container demand is anticipated to rise significantly due to a combination of economic recovery and trade congestion, with container sales expected to reach 4 million TEU in 2024 [3][30] - The shipbuilding industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by the end of low-price ship deliveries and favorable market conditions [3][58] Summary by Sections Long-Cycle Upward Sector - Oil Service Equipment: The sector is poised for growth due to increased capital expenditure from oil companies, with a projected capital expenditure of $620 billion in 2024, up 10% from the previous year [8][11] - Containers: The container market is expected to see a significant increase in demand, with 2024 container sales projected to reach 4 million TEU, driven by a recovery in global trade and inventory replenishment [3][30][37] - Shipbuilding: The shipbuilding sector is expected to improve profitability in Q2 2024, with quality ship manufacturers' gross margins projected to recover to 15-20% [3][58] Overseas Expansion Sector - Injection Molding Machines: The export growth indicates sustained overseas demand, with recommended stocks including Yizumi and beneficiaries like Haitian International [3] - Tools: The U.S. home improvement market is expected to recover, benefiting tool exports, with recommended stocks including Juxing Technology [3] - Textile Equipment: The textile machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with improving export demand and recommended stocks including Jack Sewing Machine [3] - Construction Machinery: The domestic market is recovering, with excavator sales expected to grow by approximately 20% year-on-year [3] New Technology Sector - Low-Altitude Economy: The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from supportive policies, with recommended stocks including Guodian Measurement [3] - Humanoid Robots: Advances in AI and robotics are enhancing interaction and control capabilities, with a focus on component suppliers [3] Recovery Sector - 3C Equipment: The recovery in 3C devices is anticipated, with recommended stocks including Quick Intelligent and Optoelectronics [3] - Semiconductor Equipment: The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to enter an upward cycle, with a focus on domestic alternatives and capital expenditure [3]