光伏ETF：政策引导产能理性投放，迎来结构性改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the photovoltaic (PV) industry, indicating a stable growth trajectory despite short-term challenges [2][10]. Core Insights - The PV industry is transitioning towards maturity and stability, driven by technological innovation and strategic positioning of companies. The demand side remains robust, supported by energy structure transformation and carbon neutrality goals [2][10]. - The PV index is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024, following a period of volatility influenced by supply excess and policy changes [2][11]. - The main industry chain is at a bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvements as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall PV Industry and Index Review - The PV industry faced a "winter" period due to supply excess, but government policies are being implemented to alleviate these issues. The industry is expected to recover as low-end capacities are phased out [9][10]. - The PV index has shown significant volatility compared to other indices, with a notable decline in 2023 due to oversupply, but is projected to reach a bottom and recover [11][12]. 2. PV Industry: Short-term Slowdown, Long-term Growth - Global renewable energy generation surpassed 30% of total generation for the first time in 2023, with PV capacity growing from 1.2TW in 2022 to 1.6TW in 2023 [13][15]. - The report forecasts a slowdown in growth rates due to high base effects, but long-term growth remains intact, with global PV installations expected to increase by 29% in 2024 [13][15]. 3. Main Industry Chain: Bottom Characteristics and Marginal Upside - The industry is currently at a bottom position, with expectations for improvement as supply-demand dynamics stabilize and prices bottom out [21][22]. - The transition from P-type to N-type cells is accelerating, with N-type materials becoming the preferred choice for manufacturers [22][25]. 4. Supporting Materials: Diverse Growth Logic - The demand for PV glass is expected to rise due to increased installations and the penetration of bifacial modules, while supply may tighten due to policy restrictions [2][21]. - The inverter segment is seeing a positive trend as energy storage becomes a secondary growth curve, benefiting leading companies with cost and channel advantages [2][21]. 5. PV ETFs: Focus on Leading Funds - The report highlights the limited scale of domestic PV-themed ETFs, recommending investors to focus on reputable fund managers with a strong track record [2][4].