中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：寻找城农商行二永债的下沉边界

Group 1: Core Insights - The report focuses on identifying the downward boundary for the perpetual bonds of city and rural commercial banks, emphasizing the need for a balance between liquidity and yield [2] - The analysis utilizes an entropy weight method to objectively quantify the weight of 35 indicators, reducing evaluation bias due to insufficient indicators or subjective weighting [2] - The scoring model assesses 313 commercial banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, to validate the effectiveness of the evaluation system [2] Group 2: Scoring Framework - Asset quality is analyzed through asset, loan quality, and customer loan ratios, revealing significant tiered differentiation in asset scale among sample banks [2] - Liability quality focuses on five indicators, with most banks showing high ratios of deposits, time deposits, and loan-to-deposit ratios [2] - Profitability evaluation includes net interest margin, non-interest income ratio, return on assets, equity multiplier, and cost-to-income ratio, with strong banks excelling in different areas [2] Group 3: Risk Assessment and Governance - Credit risk is assessed using capital adequacy ratio, core tier one capital adequacy ratio, provision coverage ratio, and liquidity ratio, indicating that most banks meet regulatory standards [2] - Company governance is evaluated from the perspectives of information disclosure and regulatory compliance, with state-owned banks performing better than city and rural commercial banks [2] - Shareholder background analysis shows high concentration of ownership among the top ten shareholders, with lower proportions of state-owned and government shareholders [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Three bond selection strategies are proposed: focusing on fundamentals for 3-5 year bonds, prioritizing liquidity for 1-3 year bonds, and increasing downward pressure for bonds under 1 year [2] - The report recommends 13 secondary capital bonds and 10 perpetual bonds based on a descending order of yield and the application of the three selection strategies [4]