宏观2024中期投资策略：结构牛的抬头

Group 1: Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have ended, leading to a more relaxed global liquidity environment, which is beneficial for commodity markets[3] - Berkshire Hathaway holds $180 billion in cash, indicating a surplus of liquidity relative to quality assets, which often supports commodity prices[4] - Major economies are maintaining high debt levels, necessitating continued loose monetary policies, which could further support commodity demand[5] Group 2: Commodity Trends - Global copper inventories are at their highest levels since 2020, indicating potential supply pressures[45] - The LME copper market is experiencing its deepest contango since 2000, suggesting a bearish outlook in the short term[45] - The overall commodity market is expected to face short-term obstacles due to a lack of strong industrial demand and the delayed onset of a global easing cycle[84] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The PMI index showed unexpected improvement at the end of March, which laid the groundwork for a commodity price increase in the following months[73] - Industrial profits in China need to improve significantly to strengthen the current inventory replenishment cycle[23] - The global manufacturing PMI has shown an upward trend, indicating a potential recovery in industrial activity[14]