金融研究 2026年1月6日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：1 月 5 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 1.38%，报收 4023.42 点；深成指 上涨 2.24%，报收 13828.63 点；创业板指上涨 2.85%，报收 3294.55 点；科创 50 指数上涨 4.41%， 报收 1403.41 点。市场成交 25,672 亿元，较前日增加 5,015 亿元。行业板块方面，传媒(+4.12%)， 医药生物(+3.85%)，电子(+3.69%)涨幅居前；石油石化(-1.29%)，银行(-0.34%)，交通运输(-0.3%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IM>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,180/116/1,162。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 91、-154、-119、182 亿元，分别变动+155、+53、-123、-85 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 56.08、26.4、15.15 与 0.15 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-5.83%、-2.78%、-2.59%与-0.04%，三年期历史分 ...

金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 31 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.09%，报收 3968.84 点；深 成指下跌 0.58%，报收 13525.02 点；创业板指下跌 1.23%，报收 3203.17 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.15%， 报收 1344.2 点。市场成交 20,658 亿元，较前日减少 957 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+2.13%)， 传媒(+1.54%)，房地产(+1.13%)涨幅居前；通信(-1.35%)，农林牧渔(-1.1%)，电子(-1.02%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,470/219/2,768。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-64、-207、4、267 亿元，分别变动+30、-63、+18、+14 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 90.88、57.77、20.34 与 5.93 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-9.35%、-6.05%、-3.43%与-1.53%，三年期历史分位数分别为 47%、45%、32%及 34%。 交 ...

2026年01月05日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周三白银 COMEX 提保，压制金属整体价格。中国 PMI 超预期。美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统，市场担忧 | | | | 铜 | 南美铜供应问题。供应端，铜矿紧张格局不改。需求端，铜价调整后贴水缩小。精废价差 3400 元附近。 | | | | | 交易策略：逢低做多。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周三电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.60%，收于 22925 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-370 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 3021 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境延续积极态势，LME 铝价突破 3000 美元/吨形成强劲外部带动，不过国内库存仍在持续 | | | | ...

股指期货 -144 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 77.3、41.54、21.28 与 3.15 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.71%、-4.22%、-3.47%与-0.79%，三年期历史分位数分别为 54%、57%、31%及 41%。 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：12 月 30 日，利率债涨跌不一，活跃合约中，TS 上涨 0.01%，TF 下跌 0.01%，T 下跌 0.02%， TL 上涨 0.17%。 金融研究 2025年12月31日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 30 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数走平，报收 3965.12 点；深成指上涨 0.49%，报收 13604.07 点；创业板指上涨 0.63%，报收 3242.9 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.01%，报收 1359.87 点。市场成交 21,615 亿元，较前日增加 38 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+2.63%)， ...

2025年12月31日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 单击此处输入文字。 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价大幅超跌反弹。 | | | | | 基本面：白银由于提保带来的下跌情绪上导致铜价同步下行。美联储议息会议纪要显示十二月降息决定并无 | | | | | 太多分歧。供应端，铜矿紧张格局不改。华东华南平水铜现货贴水 300 元和 200 元成交。伦敦结构 35 | 美金 | | | 铜 | back。注销仓单占比 26%。 | | | | | 交易策略：建议观望，等待波动率下降后机会。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.02%，收于 22565 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-330 | | 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2972.5 美元/吨。 | | | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | | 交易策略：宏观氛围积极， ...

2025年12月30日 星期二 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.04%，报收 点；深 29 3965.28 | | --- | --- | | | 成指下跌 0.49%，报收 13537.1 点；创业板指下跌 0.66%，报收 3222.61 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.04%， | | | 报收 1346.32 点。市场成交 21,577 亿元，较前日减少 234 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+1.48%)， | | | 国防军工(+1.43%)，银行(+1.03%)涨幅居前；有色金属(-1.95%)，公用事业(-1.24%)，电力设备 | | | (-1.13%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IH>IC>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,993/139/3,325。沪深两 | | | 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-211、-272、86、396 亿元，分别变动-194、-47、 | | 股指期货 | +144、+97 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 93.96 ...

2025年12月30日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格冲高回落出现大幅回调，伦敦金跌幅超过 4%，伦敦银跌幅达 8.79%。 | | 金 | 基本面：特朗普继续对美联储施压，正考虑以"严重失职"为由起诉鲍威尔，1 月或公布下任美联储主席人选； | | 属 | 特朗普表示俄乌双方均有意结束冲突，相关谈判已进入"最后阶段"，涉及领土问题的谈判"约 90%已经完成"； | | | 日本央行 12 月会议纪要认为"实际利率依然很低"，暗示更多加息。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流出 1.6 吨，COMEX | | | 黄金库存为 1126.5 吨，+1 吨；上期所黄金库存为 94.7 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1071.1 吨， | | | 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 13967.9 吨，-18.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 796.7 吨，-22.7 吨；iShares 白银 | | | ETF 持仓为 16305 吨，-84.6 吨。伦敦 11 月白银库存增加 932 吨至 27183 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - week view is that the price trend of lithium carbonate will be oscillating and strengthening. The current market is pricing in advance the expected increase in the price center in 2026, and the price is likely to rise rather than fall before the high - growth of energy storage demand in 2026 can be falsified. The behavior of listed companies in the industry reflects their recognition of the increase in the price center in 2026 and the downstream's high confidence in the high growth of demand, as well as their attempt to negotiate the further price transfer of industrial chain profits [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Observation - **Price**: LC2605 closed at 130,520 yuan/ton (+19,120), a week - on - week increase of 17.2%. The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) on Friday was 1,510 US dollars/ton, an increase of 175 US dollars/ton from last week. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 111,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,250 yuan/ton from last week. The basis weakened to - 16,660 yuan/ton [4]. - **Valuation**: The funds settled in the lithium carbonate variety last week rose to 29.86 billion yuan (+4.1 billion), with 16.56 billion yuan (+170 million) in LC2605, 3.13 billion yuan (+1.68 billion) in LC2607, and 3.37 billion yuan (+1.77 billion) in LC2609 [4]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in November was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. It is expected to be 98,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 22,161 tons (+116 tons) [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, the sample inventory was 109,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 653 tons; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 17,861 (+2,350) lots; the inventory days of lithium carbonate were 26.1 days (-0.1 days) [4]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: In November, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 6.1%. The retail sales of domestic new energy passenger cars were 1.354 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [4]. - **Energy Storage Demand**: The total tendering capacity of EPC and energy storage systems in November was 51.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 208%. The winning bid capacity in October was 16.3 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. It is expected that energy storage projects will start intensively in December and show an increase from March next year, and the domestic energy storage market will maintain high prosperity next year [4]. - **Consumer Electronics Demand**: In November, the production of consumer electronics improved month - on - month. The production of smartphones and micro - electronic computers was 117.89 million units and 27.49 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and 13.5%. The production of cobalt - lithium oxide in November was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [4]. 3.2 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Supply - The price of Australian lithium ore quotes rose to 1,510 US dollars/ton (+175 US dollars/ton), and the inventory of available lithium ore increased to 146,000 tons [17]. - The production of lithium carbonate in November was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%, and it is expected to be 98,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 3.0% [20]. - The production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene in November was 57,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%, and it is expected to be 60,800 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. It is expected that the production from salt lakes will decrease seasonally, while that from mica will increase month - on - month [24]. - The production of lithium hydroxide in November was 29,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%, and it is expected to be 28,900 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% [29]. - In November, the domestic production capacity of lithium carbonate increased to 184,000 tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%, and the production capacity of lithium hydroxide increased to 68,700 tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% [32]. - This week, the smelting start - up rate of lithium carbonate slightly rose to 55.1% [35]. - The production of lithium chloride in November was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%, and it is expected to be 4,750 tons in December. The price of lithium chloride rose to 83,300 yuan/ton [37]. - In November, the import of lithium concentrate was 677,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6%, and the import of lithium salts was 22,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% [40]. - The recycling volume of waste lithium batteries in November increased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.8% [44]. 3.3 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Demand - The production of lithium iron phosphate in November was 413,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%, and it is expected to be 410,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The production of ternary materials in November was 84,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%, and it is expected to be 78,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [48]. - The production of cobalt - lithium oxide in November was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%, and it is expected to be 13,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The production of manganese - lithium oxide in November was 13,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%, and it is expected to be 12,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The production of lithium hexafluorophosphate in November was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.0%, and it is expected to be 29,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [51]. - The production of power and energy storage batteries in November was 176.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. The installed capacity of power batteries in November was 93.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.1%. The production of domestic new energy passenger cars in November was 1.88 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.1%, and the sales volume was 1.823 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [54]. - The production of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles in November was 1.756 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% [57]. - The retail sales of domestic new energy passenger cars in November was 1.354 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a weekly penetration rate of 57.5% [60]. - In November, the profit of the automobile industry declined, and the inventory of pure new energy vehicle manufacturers and channels increased to 740,000 [63]. - The global sales of new energy vehicles in November were 2.241 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.8%. The sales of new energy vehicles in the US dropped sharply after the subsidy window period on October 1st, with a sales volume of 84,000, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4% [67]. - The energy storage demand was high, but limited by the slowdown of capacity growth, the orders were scheduled until next year. The production of energy storage cells in November was 57.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%, and it is expected to be 57.4 GWh in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The industry's start - up rate in November remained unchanged at 89.5%, and the inventory was 39.9 GWh (-2.1 GWh), with a monthly export of 8.8 GWh of energy storage batteries [70]. - The tendering capacity of energy storage in November was 51.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 208%, including 49.4 GWh for EPC and 1.8 GWh for energy storage systems [75]. - The winning bid capacity in October was 16.3 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. The winning bid prices of EPC and energy storage systems increased to 1.28 yuan/Wh and 0.60 yuan/Wh respectively [80]. - Overseas energy storage maintained high prosperity. Different countries have different development trends and policies, such as India's mandatory energy storage policy, and European countries being stimulated by dynamic electricity prices and subsidy policies [83]. - The domestic consumer - type lithium battery market slightly rebounded in November [84]. - In November, the export of lithium carbonate was 759 tons, a month - on - month increase of 209%, and the export of lithium hydroxide was 3,356 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.7% [87]. 3.4 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Inventory and Valuation - **Inventory**: This week, the sample inventory was 109,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 653 tons; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 17,861 (+2,350) lots; the inventory days of lithium carbonate were 26.1 days (-0.1 days) [91]. - **Valuation**: The basis weakened to - 16,660 yuan/ton, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide strengthened to +8,848 yuan/ton; the price difference between 01 and 03 contracts weakened by 620 yuan/ton, and the price difference between 01 and 05 contracts weakened to - 2,720 yuan/ton [93]. - The estimated gross profit margin of lithium salt plants continued to be in a loss state; the raw material prices rose rapidly, and the theoretical gross profit margins of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials declined [96]. - The IV of the main at - the - money options rebounded to 0.5, and the open interest slightly decreased to 1.04 million lots [99].

金融研究 2025年12月29日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：12 月 26 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.1%，报收 3963.68 点；深成 指上涨 0.54%，报收 13603.89 点；创业板指上涨 0.14%，报收 3243.88 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.24%， 报收 1345.83 点。市场成交 21,811 亿元，较前日增加 2,372 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+3.69%)， 电力设备(+1.4%)，钢铁(+1.34%)涨幅居前；电子(-0.71%)，轻工制造(-0.61%)，通信(-0.6%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IM>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,865/186/3,406。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-17、-225、-57、300 亿元，分别变动+40、-78、-11、+49 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 75.53、43.44、15.24 与-1.8 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.09%、-4.16%、-2.34%与 0.42%，三年期历史分位 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 全球流动性趋松，实物资产价值重估 ——招商期货大类资产配置周报 （ 2025年12月22日-2025年12月26日） • 招商期货 赵嘉瑜（Z0016776）马 芸（Z0018708） (+86)13686866941 徐世伟（Z0001836） 游 洋（Z0019846） 吕 杰（Z0012822） 安 婧（Z0014623） 马幼元（Z0018356） • 联系电话： • 邮箱：zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn 2025年12月28日 目录 contents 01 核心观点 02 量化分析 03 宏观概览 04 中观数据 05 板块观点 01 核心观点 市场逻辑 一、我们看好年初的股票行情，有以下五个方面的原因：一是日元加息的靴子落地，12月弥漫的日元套息交易担忧基本告一段落，2025年1月的加息中港股、A股走出"加息 前承压，加息后上涨"的走势；二是美联储从为期近三年的缩表转向"技术性扩表"，下任主席大概率是特朗普需要的"超级鸽派"；三是国内年终结算结束，年初险资等机构有望进 场；四是国内财政在"十五五"规划开局之年以及当下经济增速放缓的背景下有望靠前发力； ...