敬请阅读末页的重要说明 2025年8月22日 星期五 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：8 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.13%，报收 21 3771.1 | | | 点；深成指 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.06%，报收 11919.76 点；创业板指下跌 0.47%，报收 2595.47 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | 0.09%， | | | | | | 报收 1149.15 点。市场成交 24,603 亿元，较前日增加 119 亿元。行业板块方面，农林牧渔(+1.5%)， | | | | | | | 石油石化(+1.39%)，美容护理(+0.98%)涨幅居前；机械设备(-1.08%)，电力设备(-0.98%)，综合 | | | | | | | (-0.73%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,169/164/3,087。沪深两 | | | | | | | 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-209、-308、56、461 亿元，分 ...

2025年08月22日 星期五 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.27%，收于 20565 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 95 元/吨，LME | | | 价格 2574.5 美元/吨。 | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | 交易策略：7 月铝材出口环比增长 7.31%，铝材开工率环比上涨，铝锭社会库存出现去库拐点，下游消费出现 | | | 回暖迹象，建议逢低做多。 | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.73%，收于 3147 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 106 元/吨。 | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝运行产能持续增加。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝供应压力较强，叠加仓单量持续上行，在未看到进口铝土矿发生较大变化时，预计价格维 | | 铝 | 持震荡偏弱，若持有现货可择机卖出看涨期权。 | | | 风险提示：几内亚矿 ...

金融研究 2025年8月21日 星期四 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：8 月 日，A 股四大股指低开高走，其中上证指数上涨 1.04%，报收 20 3766.21 | 点；深成 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.89%，报收 11926.74 点；创业板指上涨 0.23%，报收 2607.65 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | 3.23%， | | | 报收 1148.15 点。市场成交 24,484 亿元，较前日减少 1,923 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+2.42%)， | | | | 石油石化(+2.36%)，电子(+2.32%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-0.07%)，家用电器(+0.12%)，房地产(+0.16%) | | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,673/162/1,585。沪深两市，机构、 | | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-125、-211、-11、347 亿元，分别变动+63、+52、-8、-107 | | | 股指期货 | 亿元。 | | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基 ...

| 招商评论 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.02%，收于 20565 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 95 元/吨，LME | | | | | | | | 价格 2570 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：美国关税扩围影响减弱，随着旺季临近，下游开工出现部分回暖迹象，后续需重点关注需求改善 | | | | | | | | 的持续性，以及库存拐点的出现时机，建议逢低做多。 | | | | | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.09%，收于 3147 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 130 | | | | | 元/吨。8 | | | 月 19 日，东澳成交 3 万吨，369 美元/吨（上一笔 月 11 日，365 美元/吨）。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 19th, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.02% to 3727.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12% to 11821.63 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.17% to 2601.74 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.12% to 1112.27 points. Market turnover was 2640.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 168.5 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.48%), communication (+1.87%), and food and beverage (+1.04%) led the gains, while non - bank finance (-1.64%), national defense and military industry (-1.55%), and petroleum and petrochemical (-0.58%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2982/186/2252 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 18.8 billion, - 26.3 billion, - 0.3 billion, and 45.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 24.2 billion, - 7.2 billion, +6.5 billion, and +24.8 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 116.25, 98.71, 11.97, and - 3.18 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 10.56%, - 9.76%, - 1.87%, and 0.74% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 34%, 16%, 40%, and 53% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short - term, the market shows signs of cooling [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 19th, the yields of treasury bond futures pulled back. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.422, a decrease of 1.73 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.613, a decrease of 1.7 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.72, a decrease of 0.8 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.121, a decrease of 0.92 bps [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.28%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.17%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures is 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.032, and an IRR of 1.13%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.047, and an IRR of 2% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 580.3 billion yuan and withdrew 114.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: With rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, guiding investors to make decisions based on different market conditions. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Tuesday, precious metals declined. London gold dropped 0.52% to $3315 per ounce. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. Due to rumors of canceling export tax - rebates for photovoltaic modules, silver exports may increase, and it is advised to wait and see [1]. - **Silver**: The iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 17 tons to 15339 tons. The inventory of silver in some regions changed, and it is recommended to wait and see due to potential export demand increase [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated weakly. Due to concerns about Powell's hawkish speech and overall market risk - appetite decline, the short - term driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum contract price fell. With supply increasing and demand slightly improving as the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina contract price declined. With increasing production capacity and surplus pressure, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc 2509 contract price dropped. Supply increased significantly, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. - **Lead**: The lead 2509 contract price rose slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to trade within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to Xinjiang's production plan [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate contract price fell. Supply may be in short - supply from August to October, and demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price oscillated. The supply may increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to policy implementation [4]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated strongly. Considering supply and demand and inventory, it is recommended to trade with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar contract price declined. The building material inventory increased, and the supply - demand is neutral - weak. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore contract price decreased. The supply and demand are neutral - strong but marginally weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal contract price dropped. The supply is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price continued to fall. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic soybean market is affected by international factors. The short - term international market oscillates, and the domestic market follows the international cost [6]. - **Corn**: The corn 2511 contract was weak. Due to factors such as wheat substitution and increased imports, the price is expected to decline. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price fell. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price declined. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13800 - 14200 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price dropped. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to close long positions in the short - term and pay attention to production and policies [6][7]. - **Eggs**: The egg 2510 contract was weak. With sufficient supply and potential demand increase, the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - **Hogs**: The hog 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to expect the futures price to oscillate strongly at the end of the month [7]. - **Apples**: The apple price oscillated. The early - maturing apple price fluctuated, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE contract price slightly declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC V01 contract price fell. With potential export tariffs and increasing supply, the driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA price is at a low level. PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA can be shorted for processing fees or far - month contracts at high prices [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price fluctuated. With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to go long at low prices after a pull - back [9]. - **Glass**: The glass FG01 contract price declined. With weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The PP contract price slightly decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving with the approaching peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply increased, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **EB**: The EB contract price slightly declined. With potential supply increase and high downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA01 contract price fell. With high supply and inventory, it is recommended to wait and see due to potential production reduction [10].

金融研究 2025年8月19日 星期二 金融期货早班车 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 2,665 亿元，货币回笼 1,120 亿元，净投放 1,545 亿元。 交易策略：风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议中长线 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏不及预期。 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 18 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.85%，报收 3728.03 点；深成 指上涨 1.73%，报收 11835.57 点；创业板指上涨 2.84%，报收 2606.2 点；科创 50 指数上涨 2.14%， 报收 1124.82 点。市场成交 28,091 亿元，较前日增加 5,363 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.46%)， 综合(+3.43%)，计算机(+3.33%)涨幅居前；房地产(-0.46%)，石油石化(-0.1%)，有色金属(+0.14%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,034/165/1,220。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 54、-191、-68、205 亿元，分别变动-70、-9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the futures market have diverse market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies. For example, in the precious metals market, the de - dollarization logic supports gold, while silver's situation is affected by policies and inventory. In the base metals market, copper is recommended for temporary observation, aluminum has short - term and long - term outlooks, and zinc is suggested for short - selling. In the agricultural products market, various crops and livestock have their own supply - demand situations and trading suggestions. In the energy and chemical market, different products also have corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand and inventory conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, COMEX gold futures fell 0.12% to $3378.60 per ounce. After the "Trudeau - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin, and the market is waiting for the Jackson Hole central bank meeting. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small inflow. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1201 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remained at 36 tons. It is recommended to go long on gold as the de - dollarization logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: The inventory situation of silver in different regions changed. The global largest silver ETF - iShares' holding increased by 285 tons to 15356 tons. Due to the rumor of canceling the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic modules and increased export demand, silver inventory decreased. It is recommended to temporarily observe [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The market has a hawkish expectation for the Jackson Hole meeting, and the US dollar index strengthened. The domestic weekly inventory increased by 0.81 tons, and the spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China slightly strengthened. It is recommended to temporarily observe [2] - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.82% to 20770 yuan per ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. In the short term, the aluminum price faces downward pressure due to tariff policies, but in the long term, it may rise due to factors such as the US interest - rate cut expectation, low inventory, and peak - season demand. It is recommended to observe in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [2] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.72% to 3182 yuan per ton. The operating capacity of alumina continued to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3150 price support in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [2][3] - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2509 contract decreased by 0.73% to 22340 yuan per ton. The supply increased significantly, and the processing fee jumped. The consumption off - season deepened, and the inventory in some regions increased while the LME inventory decreased. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [3] - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract decreased by 0.45% to 16775 yuan per ton. The production of primary lead increased, but the operating rate of recycled lead decreased and was in a loss state. The consumption peak season did not materialize, and the inventory showed a cumulative trend. It is recommended to operate within a range [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 11 - contract price decreased by 200 yuan per ton to 8605 yuan per ton. The supply side had new furnaces opened, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. The demand side had a slight increase in the operating rate of polysilicon and stable production of silicone. The downstream demand of aluminum alloy entered the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main LC2511 contract price increased by 2.7% to 89240 yuan per ton. The supply side had a mine shutdown, and the supply is expected to be in short - supply from August to October. The demand side showed a peak season for production scheduling, and the inventory decreased. The base difference weakened, and the capital in the lithium carbonate variety increased. It is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [3] - **Polysilicon**: The main 11 - contract price decreased by 460 yuan per ton to 52280 yuan per ton. The supply side had a slight increase in production, and there is an expectation of resuming production. The demand side had stable production scheduling in August, but the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic. The market is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and it is recommended to go long with a small position on dips [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 - contract price decreased by 41 yuan per ton to 3156 yuan per ton. The steel inventory increased, and the supply - demand of building materials was weakly balanced. The futures discount of rebar was slightly high. It is recommended to hold the 10/1 reverse spread, and the reference range for RB10 is 3120 - 3190 [4] - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 - contract price decreased by 10.5 yuan per ton to 772 yuan per ton. The supply - demand of iron ore was moderately strong but showed a weakening trend. The futures maintained a forward discount structure. It is recommended to observe, and the reference range for I01 is 740 - 790 [4] - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 - contract price decreased by 61 yuan per ton to 1189 yuan per ton. The supply - demand of coking coal was relatively loose but improving. The futures premium was high. It is recommended to observe and hold previous short positions, and the reference range for JM01 is 1160 - 1220 [4] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price slightly decreased. The supply side has a near - term contraction in US soybean production and a long - term expected increase in South American production. The demand side has a shift from South America to the US, but there are differences in the new - crop export demand of US soybeans. The short - term US soybeans are strong but in a fluctuating range, and the domestic soybean market follows the international cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the yield and tariff policies later [5] - **Corn**: The 2511 - contract of corn continued to be weak. Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increases supply. The corn price is expected to be weak. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [5] - **Sugar**: The 01 - contract of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 0.37% to 5678 yuan per ton. The Brazilian production is the main factor affecting the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [5] - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price increased. The US cotton's good - quality rate improved, and the Indian cotton's ending inventory increased. The domestic cotton price fluctuated upward. It is recommended to go long on dips and adopt a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,500 yuan per ton [5] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price increased. The supply side has a seasonal increase in production, and the demand side has an increase in export. The near - term inventory is accumulating, and the long - term is expected to be tight. It is recommended to be long - biased in the oil market and pay attention to the production in the producing areas and bio - diesel policies [5] - **Eggs**: The 2510 - contract of eggs was weak, and the spot price increased. The egg - laying rate decreased seasonally, and the demand may increase seasonally. The supply is sufficient. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [5][6] - **Hogs**: The 2511 - contract of hogs was weak, and the spot price slightly decreased. The consumption is recovering, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to observe the futures after the continuous decline of the spot price [6] - **Apples**: The price of the main apple contract increased by 0.51% to 8230 yuan per ton. The price of early - maturing apples is high at first and then low, and there is a price difference between different regions. The current market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [6] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main LLDPE contract fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has an improvement in the agricultural film season. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices [7] - **PVC**: The V01 - contract of PVC decreased by 1.1% to 5055 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average. The social inventory is accumulating. The trading driver is not clear, and it is recommended to observe [7] - **Glass**: The fg01 - contract of glass decreased by 0.5% to 1211 yuan per ton. The supply side has a small expectation of resuming production, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand side has low downstream orders. The price is expected to have limited decline, and it is recommended to observe [8] - **Styrene**: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an expected increase in inventory, and the demand side has large losses for downstream enterprises and high finished - product inventory. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices [8] - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 - contract of soda ash decreased by 1.5% to 1387 yuan per ton. The supply side has a high operating rate and high upstream inventory. The demand side has an increase in photovoltaic glass production. There is an expectation of production reduction, and it is recommended to observe [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to the rumored cancellation of export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic modules and increased export demand leading to inventory depletion, it is advised to wait and see [2]. - For basic metals, copper lacks a clear short - term driver and should be treated with a range - bound trading idea. Aluminum may face short - term downward pressure due to tariff policies, but its price may rise in the long - term. Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [2][4]. - For black industries, steel, iron ore, and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile this week. It is recommended to try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines. Sugar futures are recommended to go short at high prices. Cotton is recommended to be bought at low prices. Palm oil is still recommended for long - term allocation. Eggs and hogs futures are advised to wait and see [7][9]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE and PP are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term. PVC, glass, and soda ash are advised to wait and see. Rubber is recommended to be bought at low prices with caution. Crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: Precious metals fluctuated on Friday, and the US - Russia talks showed no obvious results [3]. - **Fundamentals**: US retail sales increased in July, foreign investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a record high, and consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. Gold and silver inventories in various regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, and long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: US inflation expectations rose, consumer confidence was weaker than expected, the US dollar index weakened, and the domestic stock market reached a new high. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the current demand was seasonally weak [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea in the short - term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract on Friday increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may face downward pressure due to tariff policies, and the long - term price may rise as the demand in the peak season is expected [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract on Friday decreased by 0.66% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 2763 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly last week, social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, the output of silicone was flat, and the demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading logic is related to "anti - involution" varieties, and the demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to be volatile [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1,600 yuan (+1.9%) [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The mining end of Jiaxiaowo stopped production, which will affect the monthly supply of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate from August to October. The demand for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials is in the peak season, and the inventory decreased last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current price is expected to be around 85,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday, up 2310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 10966 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells in August was in line with expectations, and the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long with a light position on pullbacks [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remained tight, the current supply - demand was weak, and the market focused on the resumption of production in Wa State. The global visible inventory decreased by 210 tons last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea [4][5]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2510 contract traded sideways and closed at 3197 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is slightly weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply of plates is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. The overall supply - demand of steel is balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and the reference range for RB10 is 3150 - 3220 [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2601 contract traded sideways and closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is slightly strong but weakening marginally. The iron - making water output increased, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal norm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and the reference range for I09 is 750 - 800 [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2601 contract rose and closed at 1250 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased slightly, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was partially implemented. The inventory at different links is differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose but improving [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and try to short the coking coal 2509 contract. The reference range for JM01 is 1200 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose on Friday, digesting the short - term improvement in supply - demand [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The demand in South America is decreasing, and there is a divergence in the export demand for new US soybeans [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Domestic soybeans follow the international cost side [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract continued to be weak, and the spot price of corn decreased in the Northeast and increased in the North China [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat has a high cost - performance ratio and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The import of grains increases the market supply, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The new - crop corn cost decreases, suppressing the long - term price [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 16.47 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 1.23%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5656 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.63% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's production dominates the raw sugar price. Domestically, the import of sugar pressured the spot price last week, but the price stabilized this week. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and is expected to be weak and volatile in the future [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short at high prices in the futures market and sell call options [9]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton futures price fell on Friday, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the drought - affected area in the US cotton - growing region increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose, and recent data adjustments were positive for cotton prices [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a trading strategy based on the range of 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton [9]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose on Friday due to good short - term exports [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal growth cycle, and the demand has improved. The near - term inventory is increasing, while the long - term supply is expected to be tight [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Allocate more in palm oil, trading on the long - term tight supply expectation. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and the biodiesel policy [9]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract was weak, and the spot price rose [9]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens. The demand from food factories is expected to increase seasonally. The supply is sufficient, and the cost has decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Eggs futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: The hog 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price of hogs decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption is gradually recovering, but the supply is sufficient due to increased slaughter in August. Pay attention to the impact of banquets at the end of the month and school - opening purchases, as well as policy trends [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term downward space for the spot price is limited after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see for futures [9]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 8188 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The apple price in Yantai, Shandong was stable [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but high - quality fruits in some areas are still expensive. The current futures market has little contradiction and is expected to trade sideways [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 7220 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants. The import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural mulch is improving, while other areas' demand is stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The v01 contract closed at 5118, up 0.1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot trading of PVC is average, and the driving force is unclear. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average. The social inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The rubber price fluctuated strongly last week, and the RU2601 contract rose 0.7% and closed at 15905 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The purchase price of Thai glue was stable. The spot price increased, and the trading was light. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tires increased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is affected by various factors, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to buy at low prices with caution [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1232, up 1% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass spot price continued to decline, and the production cut expectation is hard to verify. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the inventory has accumulated [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Wait and see [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7020 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price decreased slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing due to the resumption of maintenance plants and new plant commissioning. The demand is improving as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [11]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Crude oil prices fell slightly on Friday due to the progress of the US - Russia talks and the statement that the US will not impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, with OPEC+ planning to increase production in September and other countries also having production increases. The demand in the US is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the refinery operating rate is at a high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract as the short - term supply shortage risk has decreased [11]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7280 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly in August. The downstream enterprises are still suffering losses, and the finished - product inventory is high but decreasing. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply will increase [11]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa01 contract closed at 1400, down 0.5% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of soda ash declined, and the production cut expectation still exists. The supply is increasing as the summer maintenance is coming to an end, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand for photovoltaic glass is stable [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation still exists [12].

Report Summary on Financial Futures 1. Market Performance - On August 15, A-share's four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83% to 3696.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.6% to 11634.67 points, the ChiNext Index up 2.61% to 2534.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.43% to 1101.29 points. Market trading volume was 2272.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.92%), non-bank finance (+3.16%), and power equipment (+2.85%) led the gains; banks (-1.46%), food and beverage (+0.04%), and media (+0.51%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4623/155/641 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 12.3 billion, - 10 billion, - 18.7 billion, and 16.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +37.8 billion, +18.9 billion, - 24.9 billion, and - 31.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 31.3, 37.57, - 7.05, and - 13.52 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 4.23%, - 5.5%, 1.61%, and 4.59% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 70%, 44%, 76%, and 97% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond (250006.IB), the yield change was +0bps, the corresponding net basis was 0.03, and the IRR was 1.15%; for the 5 - year (240020.IB), the yield change was +1bps, the net basis was - 0.001, and the IRR was 1.49%; for the 10 - year (220010.IB), the yield change was +1.25bps, the net basis was - 0.027, and the IRR was 1.78%; for the 30 - year (210005.IB), the yield change was +1.75bps, the net basis was - 0.062, and the IRR was 2% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 238 billion yuan and withdrew 122 billion yuan, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the manufacturing, real estate, social activity, infrastructure, and import - export sectors are analyzed. Positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening, and zero scores indicate little change [13][14].