啤酒行业2Q24更新及展望：利润增长有弹性，景气改善和分化

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically for the beer sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that while the overall economic environment in 2Q24 is weak, profit growth remains resilient due to cost advantages, and the industry structure is still upgrading. It anticipates a potential improvement in the economic climate in 3Q24, with increased regional differentiation [1][12]. - The report suggests that the beer sector is experiencing a structural upgrade, with a projected positive growth in unit price despite a slight decline in sales volume [5][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Update - The report estimates a mid-single-digit decline in industry sales volume for 2Q24, which is an improvement compared to 1Q24. The overall unit price is expected to show positive growth, outpacing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5]. - Key trends identified for 3Q24 include: 1. Regional Differentiation: Consumption power varies significantly across provinces, with southern regions showing stronger consumer sentiment compared to northern areas. Tourist provinces are expected to perform better, contributing to incremental growth [5]. 2. Price Band Differentiation: The segment below 6 yuan is shrinking, while segments at 6 and 8 yuan remain stable. There are significant regional differences in the 10 yuan and above category, with potential for upgrades and channel expansion in certain areas [5]. 3. Competitive Landscape Differentiation: The concentration ratio (CR6) remains stable at 95%, with market share shifting towards regional companies and niche markets, particularly in Guangdong, Fujian, and other provinces [5]. Company Updates - Qingdao Beer: Expected to see a high single-digit decline in sales volume for 2Q24, with a slight positive growth in unit price. The company aims to recover sales losses in 3Q24 [6]. - China Resources Beer: Anticipated to experience a mid-single-digit decline in sales volume for 2Q24, with a low single-digit growth in unit price. The company is expected to see improved sales growth in 3Q24 [6]. - Chongqing Beer: Forecasted to achieve slight positive growth in sales volume for 2Q24, with stable pricing. The company is expected to benefit from tourism in Xinjiang and Yunnan [6]. - Yanjing Beer: Expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth in sales volume for 1H24, with a double-digit profit growth anticipated for 2Q24 [6]. - Zhujiang Beer: The company forecasts a net profit increase of 27.1% to 46.7% year-on-year for 2Q24, with stable performance expected in the Guangdong market [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends accumulating shares of Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer, citing their potential for growth despite the current weak economic conditions [12].