美国6月CPI数据点评：通胀粘性减弱明显，趋势与季节性并存

Inflation Trends - The U.S. June CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below the expected 3.1%[1] - Core CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.4%[1] Inflation Dynamics - Inflationary stickiness has notably weakened, showing both trends and seasonal patterns[2] - The current policy interest rate is close to the neutral rate, limiting the frequency of preventive rate cuts[3] Price Movements - Oil and housing prices have both seen a decline in month-on-month growth rates; gasoline prices fell by 3.8%[4] - Core inflation components showed mixed results, with housing prices increasing by 0.2% while airfare dropped by 5%[4] Economic Outlook - Preventive rate cuts are deemed reasonable, with the CPI remaining stable within the historical range of 3% to 3.8% for 13 consecutive months[5] - The U.S. economy is expected to perform well in Q3 and Q4 if no recession occurs in the first half of the year[6] Market Implications - Short-term recession risks in the U.S. stock market are low, supported by stable economic investments and AI breakthroughs[9] - Long-term market bubbles may re-emerge, reminiscent of the 1997-2000 tech bubble, due to tightening monetary policies[9]