Guoxin Securities·2024-07-12 11:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [5][19][30]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 252.4 billion yuan in Q1 FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 8%. The revenue growth rate is anticipated to stabilize, with specific segments like Taobao and international digital commerce projected to grow by 3% and 45% respectively [19][20][29]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is forecasted to be 16%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA profit expected to decline by 10% year-on-year [19][20]. - The company is focusing on stabilizing its market share in the e-commerce sector, particularly through investments in Taobao and Tmall, which are expected to enhance profitability [19][30]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for FY2024 to FY2026 include revenues of 1,013.3 billion yuan, 1,091.7 billion yuan, and 1,175.3 billion yuan respectively, with slight adjustments of 1.8%, 2.1%, and 2.5% [19][30]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 146.6 billion yuan, 164.1 billion yuan, and 179.9 billion yuan, reflecting adjustments of -5.8%, -5.2%, and -4.7% [19][30]. - The target price for the company's stock is set between 95 to 103 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 30% to 41% from the current price [19][30].