常润股份：新产品+新渠道，千斤顶龙头扬帆出海

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the stock, setting a target price of 25 yuan, representing a 50% upside from the current price of 16.62 yuan [5] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic jack manufacturer with a strong presence in both OEM and aftermarket segments, benefiting from rising product prices and improving net profit margins [1][6] - Emerging markets are driving demand in the aftermarket segment, where the company has significant advantages in brand, product portfolio, and distribution channels [2][12] - The company is expanding its OEM product categories and vehicle coverage, with new non-jack production capacity gradually coming online [3][65] Business Overview - The company has four main product lines: commercial jacks and tools, vehicle-mounted accessories, professional automotive maintenance equipment, and auxiliary products [9] - Commercial jacks and vehicle-mounted accessories are the main revenue contributors, accounting for 40% and 30-40% of total revenue respectively [45] - The company has a relatively concentrated ownership structure, with the top two shareholders holding 58% of shares [23] Financial Performance - Revenue has remained stable at around 2.7-2.8 billion yuan from 2019-2023, while net profit has grown from 100 million to 210 million yuan [32] - Overseas sales account for nearly 80% of total revenue, with the US market contributing over half of overseas sales [54] - Gross margin has remained around 20%, while net margin has improved from 4% to 8% due to better cost control [56] Growth Drivers - The global automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a 3% CAGR, reaching 1.2 trillion euros by 2030, with emerging markets like China, Brazil, and India as key growth drivers [57] - The company has a leading market share in commercial jacks, with over 270 models and sales ranking first for more than ten consecutive years [76] - Cross-border e-commerce revenue grew 55% in 2022 and 22% in 2023, reaching 237.6 million yuan [78] OEM Market Expansion - The company has expanded its OEM product portfolio from jacks to include parking brakes, cables, spare tire lifts, and tow hooks, covering both traditional and new energy vehicles [59] - It has established long-term partnerships with major automakers like Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Renault, and Nissan [81] - The company's market share in the domestic OEM market exceeds 35% [82] Capacity Expansion - The company is investing 510 million yuan in new production capacity, including 1.73 million units of jacks and lifts [60] - A new factory in Thailand is expected to start production in Q3 2024 [59] - The company acquired Puke Technology, a toolbox cabinet manufacturer, which is expected to grow revenue by 9.55%-43.15% over five years [116] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 3.15/3.52/3.94 billion yuan and net profit of 280/328/375 million yuan in 2024-2026 [106] - Based on comparable company valuations, the target price is set at 25 yuan, implying a 14x 2024 PE multiple [118]