6月金融数据点评：预期内的社融增速放缓

Loan and Financing Data - In June, new loans amounted to 21,300 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9,200 billion RMB[3] - Corporate loans contributed 16,300 billion RMB, down 6,503 billion RMB year-on-year, with medium to long-term loans decreasing by 6,223 billion RMB[3] - Household loans increased by 5,709 billion RMB, but this was a decrease of 3,930 billion RMB year-on-year, with medium to long-term loans down 1,428 billion RMB[3] Social Financing and Monetary Supply - The total social financing increment in June was 32,982 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9,283 billion RMB, with a stock growth of 8.1%[21] - Government bonds increased by 8,487 billion RMB, up 3,116 billion RMB year-on-year, remaining a key support for social financing[21] - M2 growth was recorded at 6.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 decreased by 5.0%[24] Deposit Trends - In June, household deposits rose by 21,400 billion RMB, a decrease of 5,336 billion RMB year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 10,000 billion RMB, down 10,601 billion RMB year-on-year[5] - Fiscal deposits decreased by 8,193 billion RMB, indicating a significant reduction in government financing activity[5] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights increasing economic downward pressure and potential liquidity tightening beyond expectations, with concerns about the real estate recovery not meeting expectations[7]