2024年6月进出口数据点评：外需好于内需的结构性特征延续

Export Performance - In June 2024, China's exports in USD terms increased by 8.6% year-on-year, up from 7.6% in the previous month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 7.4%[1] - The export of electromechanical products in June rose by 8.0% year-on-year, a slight increase from 7.8% in May[2] - Cumulative exports of electromechanical products in the first half of the year grew by 4.9%, with ship exports surging by 85.2%[3] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of labor-intensive products fell by 1.0% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with furniture and plastic products declining by 10.1% and 3.4% respectively[4] - The decline in labor-intensive product exports is closely related to price reductions amid ample domestic capacity[4] Import Trends - In June 2024, imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 1.8% in May, significantly below the expected 4.2%[7] - The import of electromechanical products saw a sharp decline, with integrated circuits and automobiles dropping by 0.9% and 6.3% respectively[7] Market Outlook - The export performance in June was stronger than expected, potentially due to companies accelerating exports ahead of rising trade friction risks[6] - Looking ahead, China's exports are expected to remain resilient, supported by emerging markets and inventory replenishment in the U.S.[8]