2024年6月社融数据点评：社融总体表现平稳，“挤水分”效应持续释放

Monetary Trends - M2 balance reached 305.02 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and 5.1 percentage points from the same period last year[1] - M1 balance stood at 66.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, down by 0.8 and 8.1 percentage points from the previous month and the same period last year, respectively[1] - The M1-M2 spread remained at 11.2 percentage points, unchanged from the previous month[1] Deposit Trends - RMB deposits increased by 11.46 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with household deposits rising by 9.27 trillion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits decreasing by 1.45 trillion yuan[1] - In June, RMB deposits increased by 2.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.25 trillion yuan, mainly due to a significant drop in corporate deposits, which increased by 1 trillion yuan, down by 1.06 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - Household deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in June, down by 533.6 billion yuan year-on-year, possibly linked to early mortgage repayments[1] Social Financing - Social financing stock grew by 8.1% year-on-year in June, down by 0.3 percentage points from May[11] - In June, social financing increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 928.3 billion yuan, with RMB loans to the real economy increasing by 2.2 trillion yuan, down by 1.05 trillion yuan year-on-year[11] - Direct financing accounted for a larger share of social financing, with government bond financing increasing by 848.7 billion yuan, up by 311.6 billion yuan year-on-year[16] Corporate and Household Loans - Corporate short-term loans increased by 670 billion yuan in June, down by 74.9 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium- and long-term loans increased by 970 billion yuan, down by 623.3 billion yuan year-on-year[22] - Household loans increased by 570.9 billion yuan in June, down by 393 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans increasing by 247.1 billion yuan, down by 244.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans increasing by 320.2 billion yuan, down by 142.8 billion yuan year-on-year[23] Policy and Market Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with structural tools being deployed precisely, potentially leading to a steady M2 growth and a rebound in M1 growth as corporate expectations improve[1] - The "squeezing out water" effect in financial data is expected to gradually release, and with policy-driven financial precision, social financing growth is likely to stabilize and recover[12]