BABA(HK:09988) Guohai Securities·2024-07-14 12:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW (9988 HK) [1][7] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q1 total revenue is expected to reach RMB 2 494 billion (YoY +7% QoQ +12%) with adjusted EBITA declining 11% YoY to RMB 405 billion and adjusted EBITA margin at 16% [5] - Taobao Tmall Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 1 200 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at 41% [5] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue is expected to grow 34% YoY to RMB 296 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at -13% [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 262 billion with adjusted EBITA margin at 2% [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 941 168 million in FY2024A to RMB 1 018 411 million in FY2025E RMB 1 131 199 million in FY2026E and RMB 1 256 349 million in FY2027E [3] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to grow from RMB 79 741 million in FY2024A to RMB 87 017 million in FY2025E RMB 106 434 million in FY2026E and RMB 121 033 million in FY2027E [3] - Diluted EPS is expected to increase from RMB 3 99 in FY2024A to RMB 4 36 in FY2025E RMB 5 33 in FY2026E and RMB 6 06 in FY2027E [3] - P E ratio is expected to decrease from 18 27x in FY2024A to 16 74x in FY2025E 13 69x in FY2026E and 12 04x in FY2027E [3] Business Segment Analysis - Taobao Tmall Group's GMV is expected to grow 9% YoY in FY2025Q1 with customer management revenue (including commissions) growing 4% YoY to RMB 828 billion [1] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue is expected to grow 34% YoY to RMB 296 billion in FY2025Q1 driven by strong growth in international retail commerce (YoY +41%) and steady growth in international wholesale commerce (YoY +10%) [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue is expected to grow 4% YoY to RMB 262 billion in FY2025Q1 with adjusted EBITA margin at 2% [2] Valuation and Target Price - The report gives Alibaba a target market capitalization of RMB 2 127 1 billion for FY2025 corresponding to a target price of RMB 110 yuan HKD 118 per share [7]