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2026年第29期:晨会纪要-20260226
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-26 00:46
Group 1: Online Subscription Revenue Growth and AI Development - NetEase Cloud Music - Adjusted operating profit increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in profitability [3][4] - In 2025, revenue reached 7.759 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a more cautious operational strategy in social entertainment services [3] - The number of paid users increased, driving online music subscription revenue growth, with 2025 online music business revenue at 5.994 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2: Price Increase in Overseas MDI and Polyurethane Market Outlook - Wanhua Chemical - Major overseas manufacturers have raised MDI prices, indicating a potential price increase trend in the market [9][10] - As of February 24, 2026, domestic MDI prices were 13,900 yuan/ton, with TDI prices at 14,900 yuan/ton, showing stability compared to pre-Spring Festival levels [10] - The report anticipates a recovery in polyurethane demand post-Spring Festival, supported by low inventory levels [12] Group 3: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - Suzuki - From FY2014 to FY2024, Suzuki's motorcycle production increased from 1.799 million units to 2.042 million units, with a CAGR of approximately 1.3% [14] - The company's motorcycle revenue grew from 250.5 billion yen to 398.1 billion yen during the same period, with a CAGR of approximately 4.7% [15] - Suzuki's global motorcycle market share for FY2023 is estimated at around 4% [18] Group 4: Movie Industry Performance and Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival box office reached 5.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9% due to high base effects [20][21] - The number of attendees during the Spring Festival was 119 million, down 36.3% year-on-year, with an average ticket price of 47.8 yuan, a decrease of 6.1% [21] - The report highlights strong performance in lower-tier markets, with a significant share of box office revenue coming from these areas [21] Group 5: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - Honda - Honda's motorcycle sales revenue increased from 1.85 trillion yen to 3.22 trillion yen from FY2015 to FY2024, with a CAGR of approximately 6.37% [25] - The company's motorcycle sales volume grew from 17.59 million units to 18.82 million units during the same period, with a CAGR of approximately 0.75% [26] - Honda's global motorcycle market share is approximately 40% [29] Group 6: Express Logistics Industry Trends - In the first eight weeks of 2026, the total express delivery volume reached 32.734 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [36][37] - YTO Express led the growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 29.75% in January [38] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the express logistics sector, anticipating steady growth in business volume [40] Group 7: Engineering Machinery - Shantui - Shantui is positioned as a leading enterprise in bulldozers, focusing on smart, high-end, and globalized products [45][46] - The company expects revenue growth driven by increased infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia and mining capital expenditure in Africa [46][47] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 15.4 billion, 17.4 billion, and 20.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.25 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan [49]
山推股份(000680):公司深度研究:“挖”出新天地,“推”向全世界
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-25 15:40
2026 年 02 月 25 日 公司研究 评级:买入(首次覆盖) 研究所: 证券分析师: 张钰莹 S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] "挖"出新天地, "推"向全世界 ——山推股份(000680)公司深度研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2026/02/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 山推股份 | 8.0% | 33.2% | 44.7% | | 沪深 300 | 0.1% | 5.8% | 18.6% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/02/24 | | 当前价格(元) | | | 13.64 | | 周价格区间(元) 52 | | | 7.36-13.73 | | 总市值(百万) | | | 20,461.95 | | 流通市值(百万) | | | 17,932.53 | | 总股本(万股) | | | 150,014.26 | | 流通股本(万股) | | | 131,470.18 | | 日均成交额(百万) | | | 28 ...
机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列3:铃木:摩托车FY2023全球市占率≈4%
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-25 15:39
证券研究报告 2026年02月25日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列3 铃木:摩托车FY2023全球市占率≈4% 评级:推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -21% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2025/02/24 2025/05/25 2025/08/23 2025/11/21 2026/02/19 机械设备 沪深300 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 3.7% | 16.6% | 46.2% | | 沪深300 | -2.1% | -0.9% | 19.3% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 《太空光伏行业深度2:从SpaceX第一性原理展开(推荐)*机械设备*张钰 莹》——2026-02-17 《机械行业专题报告:摩托车行业2026年1月数据更新(推荐)*机械设备*张 钰莹》——2026-02-12 《太空光伏行业深度报告1:从技术底层逻辑展开(推荐)*机械设备* ...
机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列4:本田:摩托车全球市占率40%如何拆解?
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-25 15:38
证券研究报告 2026年02月25日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列4 本田:摩托车全球市占率40%如何拆解? 最近一年走势 相关报告 -21% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2025/02/24 2025/05/25 2025/08/23 2025/11/21 2026/02/19 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告:摩托车行业2026年1月数据更新(推荐)*机械设备*张 钰莹》——2026-02-12 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 3.7% | 16.6% | 46.2% | | 沪深300 | -2.1% | -0.9% | 19.3% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 核心提要 评级:推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 本篇报告通过梳理本田摩托车全球销售情况等,重点分析以下核心问题:1、本田摩托车销售收入及销量如何?2、本田摩托车分区域销量如何?3、 本田摩托车全球市占率40%如 ...
机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列2:川崎:摩托车FY2023全球市占率≈1%
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-25 15:28
证券研究报告 2026年02月25日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列2 川崎:摩托车FY2023全球市占率≈1% 评级:推荐(维持) 相对沪深300表现 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 3.7% | 16.6% | 46.2% | | 沪深300 | -2.1% | -0.9% | 19.3% | -21% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2025/02/24 2025/05/25 2025/08/23 2025/11/21 2026/02/19 机械设备 沪深300 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 《太空光伏行业深度2:从SpaceX第一性原理展开(推荐)*机械设备*张钰 莹》——2026-02-17 《机械行业专题报告:摩托车行业2026年1月数据更新(推荐)*机械设备*张 钰莹》——2026-02-12 《太空光伏行业深度报告1:从技术底层逻辑展开(推荐)*机械设备* ...
网易云音乐(09899):——网易云音乐(9899.HK)点评报告:在线订阅收入稳健增长,大力发展AI功能
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-25 06:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in online subscription revenue and is actively developing AI features to enhance user experience [2][6] - The adjusted operating profit has increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its music copyright and has introduced several AI functionalities to enrich the music experience [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.59 billion, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a more cautious approach to social entertainment services [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.48 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 76.0% year-on-year [8] - The adjusted net profit reached 28.60 billion, up 68.2% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in tax expenses [8] - The gross margin for 2025 was 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted operating profit margin was 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points [8] - The company ended 2025 with cash reserves of 121.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [8] Revenue and User Growth - The online music business revenue for 2025 was 59.94 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.0%, driven by an increase in paid users and enhanced user experience [8] - The number of paid users has increased, contributing to the growth in subscription revenue, which reached 50.53 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year [8] - The company’s monthly active users (MAU) have shown stable growth, maintaining a daily active users (DAU) to MAU ratio of over 30% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 to 2028 are 84.79 billion, 91.16 billion, and 96.99 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of 9.27%, 7.52%, and 6.39% [10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline to 20.59 billion in 2026, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 21.79 billion in 2026, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 14 [10]
国海证券晨会纪要-20260225
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-25 01:59
Group 1: Transportation Industry Insights - The Spring Festival travel peak has shown a significant increase in passenger volume and ticket prices, indicating an industry turning point. The total inter-regional passenger flow reached 5.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [3][4] - During the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the civil aviation passenger volume increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with an average ticket price of 943 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [3][4] - The civil aviation industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in passenger volume for 2026, supported by a recovery in business travel and a high seat occupancy rate [5] Group 2: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is entering a favorable cycle with rising prices due to the upcoming peak season and a global trend of reducing overcapacity. The focus is on the recovery of demand and the potential for increased dividend yields from leading companies [6][8] - Key sectors to watch include coal chemical, oil refining, and agricultural chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance potential [8][9] - The industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in supply and increased demand, particularly in sectors like PTA and tire manufacturing, as well as in the context of AI-driven demand [8][9] Group 3: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has risen to 718 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 23 yuan, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from power plants [45][46] - The competitiveness of imported coal has diminished, leading to a favorable outlook for domestic coal prices as supply tightens and demand remains stable [45][46] - The overall coal mining industry is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to rising operational costs and regulatory pressures, with a focus on maintaining high-quality assets and cash flow [47]
机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列1:雅马哈:摩托车FY2023全球市占率约10%
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-24 15:09
证券研究报告 2026年02月24日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告:日系品牌摩托车系列1 雅马哈:摩托车FY2023全球市占率约10% 评级:推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -19% -7% 6% 18% 31% 43% 2025/02/20 2025/05/21 2025/08/19 2025/11/17 机械设备 沪深300 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 3.7% | 16.6% | 46.2% | | 沪深300 | -2.1% | -0.9% | 19.3% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 《太空光伏行业深度2:从SpaceX第一性原理展开(推荐)*机械设备*张钰 莹》——2026-02-17 《机械行业专题报告:摩托车行业2026年1月数据更新(推荐)*机械设备*张 钰莹》——2026-02-12 《太空光伏行业深度报告1:从技术底层逻辑展开(推荐)*机械设备*张钰 莹》——20 ...
债券研究周报:十债突破1.80%,这次有何不同?-20260224
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-24 13:01
2026 年 02 月 24 日 债券研究周报 研究所: 证券分析师: 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师: 洪子彦 S0350525100001 hongzy@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 十债突破 1.80%,这次有何不同? 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 年初以来,配置盘买债力度不减,在春节以前,10 年国债到期收益 率下破 1.80%并维持在该点位下方,本轮下行出现了一些微妙的变 化,本文进行探究。 相关报告 《债券研究周报:这一波 30 年空头做反了吗?*颜 变化之一在于交易盘接力利率下行的后半场。从数据上看,2 月 9 日至 13 日,即 10 年国债下行突破 1.80%的当周,证券公司买入 142 亿元、253 亿元的 5-7Y 以及 7-10Y 期限国债,买入力量超过大型银 行,说明在 1.80%下方银行的边际买入力量有所减少,交易盘接棒 开始买入。 变化之二在于交易盘的买入行为可能与基差策略相关。我们在近期 的报告中探讨过券商的交易行为,详见《这一波 30 年空头做反了 吗?》,而券商对于 10 年国债的做空力度并不强,且当 ...
医药生物行业周报:和铂医药HBM4003 BD落地,携手偏向性IL-2共启Treg治疗新局-20260224
Guohai Securities· 2026-02-24 11:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a decline of 0.81% in the past week, ranking 21st among 31 primary sub-industries, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.36% [11][34] - Recent developments include a partnership between Heptares Therapeutics and Solstice Oncology, granting exclusive rights for HBM4003 outside Greater China, with a total upfront payment exceeding $105 million [5][12] - The report highlights the promising clinical data for HBM4003 in treating metastatic colorectal cancer, showing an objective response rate (ORR) of 34.8% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 60.9% [5][12] - Nektar Therapeutics announced positive results from the REZOLVE-AD study for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, demonstrating sustained efficacy with the new Treg-targeting agent Rezpeg [16][19] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance over the past month shows a decline of 0.81%, with specific sub-sectors like traditional Chinese medicine and medical devices experiencing significant drops [34] Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.79 percentage points, with a total return of 2.44% [34] Valuation - As of February 13, 2026, the pharmaceutical sector's valuation stands at 33.2 times PE, representing a 30% premium over the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [37] Key Companies to Watch - The report emphasizes companies such as Aidi Pharmaceutical, WuXi Biologics, and Innovent Biologics as key players to monitor in the current market environment [5][39]