Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The tightening of carbon emission quotas is beneficial for high-efficiency coal power plants, while the gas sector is expected to maintain low gas source costs in 2024, with market reforms aiding natural gas demand growth [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Carbon Emission Quotas Tightening Benefits High-Efficiency Coal Power Units - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft for the carbon emission trading quota for the power generation industry for 2023 and 2024, shifting the quota calculation from electricity supply to electricity generation [3][4] - The new quota scheme focuses on emission intensity rather than absolute emission reductions, which is expected to favor high-efficiency coal power units [5][6] - The benchmark values for various coal power units are set to decrease by approximately 0.5% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5][6] 2. Natural Gas: 2024 Gas Source Costs Remain Low - Natural gas prices have remained low in 2024, with pipeline gas import prices decreasing by 11.2% and LNG import prices by 17.2% in the first five months [12][14] - National gas consumption is projected to grow steadily, with a 10.8% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption in early 2024 [12][14] - Market reforms are expected to enhance gas trading volumes and consumption, with significant developments in pipeline gas pre-sale trading [16][17] 3. Recommended Portfolio Performance - The recommended portfolio, including companies like Changjiang Electric Power and Huaneng Hydropower, has outperformed the market, with a 37.20% increase in 2024 compared to the broader indices [1][19] 4. Key Company Valuations - Companies such as China Nuclear Power and Huaneng Power are rated as "Buy," with projected earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [21][23]
公用事业2024年第28周周报：碳配额收紧利好高效煤电 阶段低位关注燃气板块
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-07-14 23:30