海外市场点评：枪击事件是否强化“特朗普交易”？

Market Impact - The shooting incident may temporarily strengthen the "Trump trade" as calls for Biden to withdraw from the election increase, raising market focus on Trump-related investments[12] - Historical context shows that similar events, like Reagan's assassination attempt in 1981, had limited long-term impact on the market, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones briefly declining before rebounding[3][8] - Following the incident, the TRUMP index (MAGA) surged from around $6.3 to over $10, indicating a spike in market sentiment towards Trump[27] Historical Comparisons - The 1968 political climate, marked by significant violence and political division, did not adversely affect the stock market, which continued to rise due to strong economic fundamentals[28] - During Trump's election in 2016, the market reacted positively post-election, with the WTI crude oil price increasing by 18.7% and major stock indices rising significantly from November 9 to December 31, 2016[17] Future Outlook - The market may experience a short-term "Trump rally," benefiting sectors like finance, traditional energy, and manufacturers favored by trade protectionism[40] - Increased uncertainty from the election may lead to heightened volatility in the market, particularly affecting risk assets and safe-haven investments like gold and high-dividend stocks[32][40] - Long-term market performance will still depend on economic conditions, inflation, and industry trends, despite short-term fluctuations driven by political events[40]