宏观研究报告：特朗普遇袭，降息交易升温

Group 1: Market Reactions to Trump's Incident - Trump's shooting incident has become a significant market variable, potentially increasing short-term risk aversion[1] - Generally, Trump-related trades suggest inflation and rising long-term interest rates, but the current sentiment leans towards rate cuts[6] - Following the incident, there has been a surge in betting on Trump's election chances, surpassing interest levels seen after presidential debates[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The market is now betting on a 25 to 50 basis point rate cut in September, influenced by recent economic data, including a lower-than-expected CPI for June[23] - The short-term risk of rising U.S. Treasury yields is considered low, indicating that long-term rates may struggle to rise[6] - If the market anticipates inflationary pressures from a potential Trump presidency, U.S. dollar rates could increase, leading to a stronger dollar[10] Group 3: Implications for Stock Markets - Hong Kong stocks have shown a positive trend in response to rate cut expectations, with a focus on high dividend and TMT sectors[30] - The potential for U.S. rate cuts may lead to increased monetary easing in China, enhancing the attractiveness of high-dividend strategies[30] - The tech sector is gaining attention due to emerging opportunities in areas like autonomous driving, indicating new growth avenues for major tech firms[30]