诺泰生物：GLP-1产业链率先获益，数吨级产能助力腾飞

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the booming GLP-1 industry, with significant production capacity expansion planned to support growth [2][4]. - The company anticipates achieving a net profit of 3.6 billion, 5.2 billion, and 7.4 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 120%, 44%, and 44% [2][70]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a target of reaching several tons of capacity by the end of 2025 [2][108]. Summary by Sections 1. GLP-1 Industry Chain Benefits - The company is set to benefit from the GLP-1 industry chain, with strong demand for raw materials driven by successful overseas sales of GLP-1 products [1][4]. - The company has signed significant contracts for GLP-1 raw materials, including collaborations with well-known domestic and international biopharmaceutical companies [1][97]. 2. Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.69%, and a net profit of 162 million yuan, up 26.2% [25]. - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.6% and 25.4% respectively from 2017 to 2023 [25]. 3. CDMO Business Performance - The small molecule CDMO business has shown stable performance, with a significant order from a European client valued at 100 million USD, to be executed over six years [16][32]. - The company’s CDMO business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, particularly with the new orders in place [32]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings forecast indicates a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 1.66 billion, 2.38 billion, and 3.47 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [70][102]. - The report suggests that the company can enjoy a valuation premium due to its clear benefits from the GLP-1 industry trend and robust future capacity [2][70].