华福证券 近期观点 投资建议 告 在当前宏观环境下，投资布局可重点关注以下三条高景气产业链： 一是人工智能（AI）与数字经济，其发展正从算力基础迈向行业应用， 空间广阔；二是高端制造与国产替代，在供应链安全战略下，核心环 节的自主可控迫在眉睫；三是新能源与绿色科技，技术迭代驱动成本 下降，长期增长逻辑坚实。对应的上市代表公司可关注：AI 算力领域 的工业富联、中际旭创；半导体设备龙头北方华创、中微公司；以及 新能源领域的宁德时代、比亚迪。建议优先选择各赛道中技术壁垒高、 竞争优势明确的龙头企业进行配置。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 2025 年 10 月 21 日 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 智能体行业全景透视：从 Z 世代需求到垂直赛道 落地的深度分析 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 告 风险提示 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；医疗事件风险 华福证券 1. Z 世代智能体市场进入高速成长期，政策与资本双轮驱动 2. 技术演进加速，多模态与自主性成为核心趋势 3. Z 世 ...

海外市场周观察（1013-1019） 年内两次降息或成定局 投资要点： 本周中美贸易局势未缓解，中美双方均表明强硬立场。但考虑到特朗普 关税政策常伴随"威胁-谈判-豁免"循环，并且10月末的中美可能在APEC会 议上谈判，关税实际落地概率仍存变数；此外，当地时间10月16日，美国国 会参议院以51票对45票的投票结果再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案，已 经是过去两周内，参议院连续10次投票均否决了该临时拨款法案，政府停摆 尚未结束。受政府停摆影响，原定于10月15日公布的CPI数据推迟至10月24 日，9月非农就业数据亦未发布，导致市场缺乏关键宏观指引。唯一较为重要 数据费城联储制造业指数暴跌至-12.8（前值+23.2），远低于预期的+8.5， 创5月以来新低。本周美联储官员讲话整体偏鸽，美联储理事沃勒表示，支持 本月晚些时候进一步降息，但由于政府仍处于停摆状态、缺乏官方经济数 据，此后的政策路径仍存在较大不确定性，当前市场几乎完全定价年内将有 两次降息。后续需重点关注中美关税谈判进展和政府停摆对数据延迟发布的 影响，目前看好黄金的避险与配置属性，本周中美贸易摩擦持续、美国政府 停摆尚未结束及美国两家银行爆 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 10 月 20 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价重心下移，9 月三方口径能繁去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：（1）9 月销售简报：猪企出栏缩量、均重回升。出栏方面， 9 月 17 家猪企合计出栏生猪 1414.12 万头，环比-6.62%，同比+21.94%。均 重方面，不考虑仔猪、种猪销售影响，测算 4 家上市猪企有生猪出栏均重 均值 121.33 公斤，环比+1.63%。（2）上周行情：二育进场，猪价跌后略 有反弹。国庆中秋假期后，猪肉需求阶段性回落，周初猪价偏弱下跌。随 后日常消费逐步恢复，加之肥标价差扩大增强北方散户惜售情绪，并吸引 二次育肥入场，共同推动行情小幅反弹。10 月 17 日全国生猪均价为 11.18 元/公斤，周环比-0.06 元/公斤。短期来看，10 月钢联/卓创/涌益样本企业 出栏预计环比+5.48%/+7.32%/+5.14%，供应增量明显，短期猪价预计仍偏 弱运行为主。长期来看，近期猪价重心下移，养殖亏损程度加深，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预期增强，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移。9 月 涌 益 / 钢 联 / 卓 创 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of a favorable development in the military industry from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goal of the military [4][39]. - The military industry is anticipated to experience significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand due to multiple catalysts, including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [4][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index (801740) fell by 4.61% from October 9 to October 17, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.73%, resulting in an underperformance of 1.88 percentage points [10][15]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 13.28%, compared to a 14.72% rise in the CSI 300 index, leading to a relative underperformance of 1.44 percentage points [17]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, LIGONG Navigation, Bai'ao Intelligent, Great Wall Military, and China Ordnance Red Arrow 2. Stealth Materials: Jiachitech and Huaqin Technology 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials and China Marine Defense 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, and Tunan Co. 5. Drones & Anti-drone: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjinggang 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke and Aerospace Electronics 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft 8. Nuclear Fusion: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Xuguang Electronics, Aike Saibo, Parker New Materials, Yongding Co., Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [4][40]. 3. Fund and Valuation Analysis - As of October 17, the military index's TTM P/E ratio is 73.81, with a percentile rank of 96.47%, indicating a high configuration value given the strong recovery expectations for 2025 [4][39][30]. - The report notes a decrease in the scale of passive funds but an increase in fund shares, with a net inflow of 1.391 billion yuan into military ETFs, suggesting continued confidence in the military sector [25][30].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, particularly focusing on quantitative screening of four types of patterns and trading heat indicators [2][9]. - The report identifies a total of 13 thematic indices showing a bottoming pattern, primarily in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, while 17 indices have broken out, mainly in non-bank financials, utilities, food and beverage, and defense industries [12][9]. - The report highlights a decline in trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes, with humanoid robots' trading heat dropping to 61% and Deepseek's to 42%, indicating a potential cooling in market interest [3][16]. Group 2 - The report outlines the monitoring of leading stocks corresponding to popular themes, noting that the closing price of Changsheng Bearing is 12.8% below its 60-day moving average, while Daily Interaction is 10.8% below its 60-day moving average [16][20]. - The report indicates that there are currently no thematic indices in an accelerated upward trend, with only three indices showing a main rising pattern, primarily in coal and textile sectors [12][9]. - The report suggests that the thematic investment data system will be updated regularly to provide investors with objective references for capturing market trends [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in various sectors, including electric vehicles, solar energy, wind energy, energy storage, power equipment, industrial control, robotics, and hydrogen energy [2][3][4][5][9][18][28][36][50][59] Electric Vehicle and Lithium Battery Sector - Six departments issued a three-year plan to double the number of charging stations, aiming to add over 28 million new charging facilities by 2027, with a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for new energy vehicles in September [9][10] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a historical high of 1.296 million units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [10] Solar Energy Sector - Anticipation of two major favorable policies aimed at curbing price competition in the solar industry, with a focus on high-quality development [18][19] - The report emphasizes the need for effective policies to eliminate outdated production capacity and rejuvenate the solar industry [19] Wind Energy Sector - Multiple key offshore wind projects are undergoing intensive bidding, with a notable procurement of 1.52GW wind turbines by State Power Investment Corporation at competitive prices [28][30] - The report indicates that these projects will lay a solid foundation for installed capacity in 2026 and 2027 [28] Energy Storage Sector - Strong demand for energy storage batteries is expected to approach 600GWh by 2025, with a significant increase in shipments in Q3 2025 [36][37] - The first self-regulatory practice guidelines for energy storage systems have been released, focusing on safety and quality standards [38] Power Equipment Sector - The third batch of bidding for State Grid metering products has commenced, with a total of 16.96 million electric meters up for bid [52] - The Qinggui DC project has entered the feasibility study stage, which will enable the transmission of 36 billion kWh of electricity annually to Guangxi [56] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The establishment of a new intelligent transmission system headquarters in Hefei, with a planned investment of 1 billion yuan, aims to enhance the competitiveness of the robotics industry [59][60] - The listing of Yunji Technology on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant milestone, with a first-day increase of 49% [61][62] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced investment measures to support five key areas, while General Motors has halted the development of the next-generation hydrogen fuel cell [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential turning point in the production capacity cycle. The easing of interest rates is likely to restore home-buying willingness, while policies related to urban renewal and storage will enhance purchasing power, increasing the probability of stabilization in the real estate market [3][5] - The report highlights that the real estate market has entered a bottoming phase after three consecutive years of decline in sales area, with heightened sensitivity to policy easing. The continuous negative growth in PPI for 35 months has led to a focus on reversing this trend, which is expected to benefit the construction materials sector [3][5] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [5] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies with bottoming fundamentals, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [5] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of October 17, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 343.2 CNY/ton, down 1.1% week-on-week and down 14.1% year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1231.4 CNY/ton, down 2.7% week-on-week but up 5.8% year-on-year [4][20] Market Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 4.34%. The construction materials index decreased by 4.11%, with sub-sectors such as refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing experiencing declines of 9.42% and 10.78%, respectively [4][49][53]

投资要点： 策 华福证券 2025 年 10 月 19 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 价值风格或将在避险和顺周期之间摆动——产业 经济周观点 近期观点 告 1、 美国经济或在衰退和滞胀间摆动，美国对华贸易壁垒或有反 复。 2、 中国市场或将回归低波动率定价，中短期风格偏向价值，且 或将在避险和顺周期之间摆动。 3、 长期看好保险，有色，能源，恒科互联网，军贸，反内卷行 业。 4、 短期看好大金融，中字头，反内卷行业，航空，白酒。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、美股遭遇"黑色星期五"——2025.10.13 2、关税战再起，市场影响几何？——2025.10.13 3、商务部公布境外相关稀土物项出口管制决定— —2025.10.12 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 华福证券 | 19月价格延续复苏,贸易摩擦不改出口向好 . ...

行 业 研 华福证券 医药生物 2025 年 10 月 19 日 医药生物 究 十五五规划和 ESMO 即将召开，创新主线或迎催 化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 10 月 13 日- 2025 年 10 月 17 日）中信医药 指数下跌 2.6%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.4pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 14 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 19.8%，跑赢沪深 300 指 数 5.1pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 11 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：亚太 药业（+36.7%）、多瑞医药（+28.8%）、广生堂（+26.1%）、透景生命（+22.9%）、 向日葵（+22.9%）。 医药各板块观点及展望：从景气度角度，创新药、CXO 及上游受益降 息及创新药产业趋势，业绩趋势预计相对不错，设备及中药等 Q3 部分公 司或有业绩拐点，消费医疗静候复苏，详细见后文。 本周市场复盘及中短期投资思考：本周由于外部环境影响，大盘波动 较大，由于医药前期涨幅较多，本周医药 AH 均跑输大盘，当前情绪较弱， 成交量市场占比不到 5%。从板块上看，中药表现相对强势，而港 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 10 月 19 日 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：PEEK 小巨人再战 IPO，深圳新增 一高端电子化学品产业园 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 4848.42 点，环比下跌 5.2%。 其中，涨跌幅前五的有祥源新材(8.03%)、长鸿高科(5.06%)、奥克股份(3.61%)、 长阳科技(-0.1%)、斯迪克(-0.18%)；涨跌幅后五的有联瑞新材(-15.52%)、久日 新材(-15.2%)、雅克科技(-14.35%)、国瓷材料(-13.8%)、建龙微纳(-13.74%)。 六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报7799.83点，环比下跌6.79%； 申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1086.14 点，环比下跌 4.64%；中信三级 行业有机硅材料指数收报 6296.05 点，环比下跌 4.34%；中信三级行业碳纤维 指数收报 1525.16 点，环比下跌 8.22%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 2639.84 点，环比下跌 4.74%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 2087.07 点，环比下跌 4.07 ...