华福证券 2026 年 01 月 22 日 固 定 收 益 交易盘减配态势延续 杠杆率季节性上升 ——2025 年 12 月债券托管数据点评 投资要点： 固 定 收 12 月债券总托管规模环比上升 3026 亿元，较 11 月大幅少增 11773 亿 元。其中，利率债托管增量 6959 亿元，较上月下降约 7800 亿元，国债、 地方债、政金债托管增量均明显下降；中票和短融券净融资同样明显下降， 也使得信用债托管增量走低；同业存单托管规模环比继续下降 6224 亿元， 降幅较上月扩大 2366 亿元。 益 定 期 报 告 12 月债券市场表现仍然偏弱，超长端利率继续上行而短端有所修复， 带动收益率曲线陡峭化。而 12 月的机构行为几乎是 11 月的延续，以券商 与广义基金为代表的交易盘仍然维持了对债券的减配，但券商的减配力度 减弱，且对利率开始转为增配；而银行、保险等配置型机构整体增配债券， 但规模相对有限，尚难以逆转利率的整体趋势。而利率的顶部信号可能需 要观察到配置力量增强至足以使交易型机构的卖盘已无法推动利率明显走 高为止。 年末部分机构负债面临短期扰动、融入资金需求提升，12 月债市杠杆 率环比上升 ...

二、政策重点有何变化？ 2026 年一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定，同时，全国财政工作会 议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"，随着物价有望企 稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支"的效果或更 为显著。2026 年工作目标和重点工作方面，首先，内需仍是重点工作 首位，并上升为"坚持内需主导"的战略高度；其次，支持科技创新 和产业创新深度融合；最后，对于民生的保障持续强化，全国财政工 作会议明确"促进居民就业增收"。此外，还有两点变化，一是工具使 用规范化以提升效能，2026 年"两新"政策文件统一了核心补贴口径； 二是 以旧换新提前批力度退坡，2026 年提前下达的规模"增"在"两 重"投资、"减"在消费补贴，指向政策对于扩大投资的意愿提升，而 "以旧换新"或重在结构的优化。 宏 观 研 究 财政能为"开门红"增色几许？ 团队成员 投资要点： 一、财政加力效果如何？ 宏 观 专 题 2025 年财政政策保持较强的力度，不过经济增长的财政效应系数 回落，一定程度反映了财政扩张的经济增长"性价比"有所降低，主 要或有三点原因：首先，结构转型降低了传统乘数，2025 年财政支出 进一步转向资金沉 ...

策 华福证券 略 研 究 有色金属：牛市二阶段与实物资产价值共振的选 择 2026 年 01 月 20 日 投资要点： 策 略 专 题 2025 年有色金属申万一级行业指数表现亮眼，全年涨幅高达 94.73%， 领涨 31 个申万一级行业，权益市场与商品价格齐飞。基于"有色不会缺席 牛市二阶段"+"实物资产价值重估"的两大逻辑，当前时点我们依然看 好有色金属。 有色不会缺席牛市二阶段 牛市二阶段进入盈利驱动上涨周期，伴随着经济基本面的向上修 复，有色金属的强周期性体现，涨幅显著。在"反内卷"和扩内需驱 动下，再通胀叙事强化，牛市二阶段开启后，有色金属行情仍有望继 续演绎。 实物资产价值重估 弱美元提供基础环境，美国化债是核心逻辑，矿山资本开支历史 性不足是现实约束，关键矿产权力是"隐形"推手。 风险提示 美联储政策转向、具体金属品种影响因素的不同、价格波动的不 确定性 团队成员 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 章静嘉(S0210124080012) zjj30646@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、Z 世代理财市场结构性机遇：需求分 ...

轻工制造行业2026年投资策略： 认知差异，蜕变在即 证券研究报告|行业投资策略 轻工制造 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2026年1月20日 证券分析师： 李宏鹏 执业证书编号：S0210524050017 汪浚哲 执业证书编号：S0210524050024 李含稚 执业证书编号：S0210524060005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 2.3 行业：家具社零表现弱于整体，大宗可选属性突出 1.1 股价回顾：轻工板块25年跑输大盘 图：轻工行业收益率及超额收益率（收盘价：20251231，下同） ➢ 我们定调此次策略报告主题为认知差异，蜕变在即，因为我们注意到在近年国内外宏观经济和贸易环境波动的背景下，轻工企业的商业模式加 速迭代、业绩表现分化加大，后续建议研究寻找企业的阿尔法。出口我们持续看好具备高壁垒&全球产能布局领先的企业，有望在全球供应链 重构过程中迎来份额加速提升。内需消费和周期子行业虽业绩承压，但我们认为目前行业景气度已处于历史底部，龙头公司深挖存量、创新增 量，展现更强经营韧性；未来随着国内消费环境回暖，内需子行业景气有望逐步回升，份额 ...

证券研究报告|宏观定期报告 2026年1月19日 节后地产销售略回暖 实体经济图谱2026年第3周 证券分析师： 陈兴 执业证书编号：S0210526010005 陈冠宇 执业证书编号：S0210525090004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 | | | 目 录 3 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 1月过半，从中观高频数据看，一方面，终端需求有一定积极迹象，元旦假期 过后市场活跃度有所恢复，房地产销售有所回暖，汽车销售同比仍然较低， 服务消费分化，电影票房平淡，演出市场火热，乐园客流受天气影响南强北 弱。另一方面，工业生产呈现"开门红"迹象，本周汽车半钢胎开工率上升 ，样本钢厂产量增速转正，石油沥青开工率也有上行，北方降温推动发电耗 煤降幅收窄，但化工产业链负荷率多数下降。此外，元旦假期过后，短途客 运较旺长途客运转淡，地铁客运量明显上行，国内航班架次减少。 ➢ 风险提示：政策变动，本文对当前政策判断基于公开信息，无法预知未来或 有政策；经济恢复不及预期，本文对经济运行判断基于公开数据，无法预知 未来或有变动；极端气候影响超预期，无法预知未来气候情况。 华福证券 ◼ 乘用 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, with increased weekly amplitude, and the equity - style convertible bonds with "high price and high conversion premium" remained active. The balance - weighted increase of debt - biased convertible bonds was 0.03%, balanced convertible bonds rose 0.19%, and equity - biased convertible bonds rose 3.87%, further widening the style excess. The balance - weighted conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with an absolute price above 130 yuan approached the historical high [2][10]. - The "leverage" of equity - style "high - price and high - premium" convertible bonds can still explain the current valuation system changes. Convertible bonds have a certain degree of "leverage", and the investment behavior of secondary bond funds also indicates that convertible bonds are a leveraged tool for stocks [15][19]. - Redemption disturbances have begun to marginally affect the performance of equity - style convertible bonds. Some convertible bonds that have announced forced redemptions experienced a double - kill of stocks and bonds, and some equity - style convertible bonds that have not met the forced - redemption conditions also showed weak performance with a significant compression of the conversion premium rate [21]. - The strong performance of new convertible bonds is an important support for the "high - price and high - premium" situation, but potential regulatory policy risks need to be noted. As of last Friday, the balance - weighted implied volatility of convertible bonds listed within 6 months exceeded 85%. Considering the increased regulatory guidance on the equity market, there may be specific requirements for new convertible bonds [3][23]. - Historically, unexpected forced redemptions have a short - term impact on the valuation of equity - style convertible bonds. After the impact, it is recommended to focus on equity - style varieties with a higher certainty of non - forced redemption [29]. Summary According to the Directory 1 When "High - price and High - premium" Convertible Bonds Encounter Potential Forced - redemption Risks - **Market Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08% last week. Equity - style convertible bonds with "high price and high conversion premium" were active. In terms of style, debt - biased convertible bonds rose 0.03%, balanced convertible bonds rose 0.19%, and equity - biased convertible bonds rose 3.87%. The balance - weighted conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with an absolute price above 130 yuan was close to the historical high [2][10]. - **Valuation Explanation**: The "leverage" of convertible bonds can explain the current valuation system. The convertible bond valuation is related to the weighted index of underlying stocks, and the investment behavior of secondary bond funds also shows that convertible bonds are a leveraged tool for stocks [15][19]. - **Redemption Impact**: Redemption disturbances affected the performance of equity - style convertible bonds. Some bonds with announced forced redemptions had a double - kill of stocks and bonds, and some bonds that had not met the forced - redemption conditions also had a compressed conversion premium rate [21]. - **New Bond Support and Risks**: The strong performance of new convertible bonds supported the "high - price and high - premium" situation. As of last Friday, the balance - weighted implied volatility of convertible bonds listed within 6 months exceeded 85%. There may be regulatory risks for new convertible bonds [3][23]. - **Forced - redemption Impact on Valuation**: Historically, in the 5 trading days before an unexpected forced - redemption event, the valuation of equity - style convertible bonds was likely to be compressed, with a median compression amplitude of about 1 - 2 percentage points. After the event, there was no obvious pattern in the valuation performance. It is recommended to focus on equity - style varieties with a higher certainty of non - forced redemption [29]. - **Forced - redemption Counting Details**: Multiple convertible bonds are in the forced - redemption counting stage, and some are close to triggering forced redemptions. For example, Fuli Convertible Bond, Sailong Convertible Bond, and Tianjian Convertible Bond need at least 1 more day to trigger forced redemptions [35].

华福证券 Z 世代理财市场结构性机遇：需求分层、细分赛 道与产业图景 2026 年 01 月 19 日 投资要点： ➢ 近期观点 3. 性别差异化定制成破局关键 4. "财商+心理"支持构建新壁垒 ➢ 投资建议 从市场趋势来看，建议重点关注社交驱动型理财渠道的建设。Z 世 代将理财视为重要的社交货币，超过 80%的年轻人讨论理财话题，近 七成购买行为受社交影响。具有社交属性的金融科技平台将获得更好 的用户粘性和增长潜力，建议关注社交金融生态，产业链需整合社交 渠道合作、金融信息服务和财经内容生产。 在产品开发方面，AI 赋能的低门槛理财工具需求迫切。约八成 Z 世代愿尝试 AI 理财助手，但超六成实际收益低于 4%，普遍存在"知识 -行动"差距。应发展智能投顾、游戏化教育应用等，产业链涉及 AI 算 法、移动应用开发与机构合作。 中期规划与创作者经济值得重点布局。超半数 Z 世代群体注重在 线变现技能，应当布局创作者服务平台、中期财务规划及创业支持生 态，产业链覆盖孵化平台、技能交易、培训与供应链服务。 ➢ 风险提示 理财知识不足与实践能力薄弱；社交驱动与非理性投资行为；执行乏 力风险 1. 父母金融：代际营 ...

Economic Performance - In December, the national GDP growth for the year reached 5%, successfully meeting the target[10] - The fixed asset investment in December saw a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The manufacturing investment dropped by 10.5%, while real estate investment fell by 35.8%[4] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in December decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 0.9%, marking the lowest level since 2023[19] - Service retail sales continued to rise, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.5%, indicating strong resilience in service consumption[19] - The average growth rate of essential consumer goods increased to 3.2%, while discretionary goods saw a decline of 4.4%[22] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in December grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries[11] - The mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors reported growth rates of 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively[11] Real Estate Market - The sales area of real estate in December experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, although this was an improvement from November[25] - Housing prices continued to decline, with both new and second-hand residential prices showing a widening year-on-year drop[10] Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, consistent with the previous month and year[26] - The report emphasizes that expanding consumption is crucial for stabilizing growth in 2026, with "new infrastructure" and "energy infrastructure" as potential short-term strategies[26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][66] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of housing tax refund policies and a reduction in the down payment ratio for commercial properties, which are expected to support the real estate market [3][13] - The report anticipates a turning point in the building materials capacity cycle due to supply-side reforms and a recovery in home buying willingness driven by lower interest rates and supportive policies [6][13] - The report notes that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with an increasing probability of recovery in post-cycle demand for building materials [6][13] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have announced the extension of tax refund policies for homeowners [3] - The central bank has adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to no less than 30% [3] - Various cities are implementing measures to promote stable development in the real estate market, including urban renewal projects and government subsidies for home purchases [3][13] Market Data - As of January 16, 2026, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 335.5 CNY/ton, showing a 0.9% decrease from the previous week and a 16.0% decrease year-on-year [4][14] - The national average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1097.1 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the previous week but a 16.9% decrease year-on-year [4][22] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1%. The building materials index decreased by 0.67% [5][51] - Sub-sectors such as refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing showed positive growth, while cement and glass manufacturing experienced declines [5][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies showing signs of bottoming out [6]

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 19 日 利率顶部信号初现 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周债市出现修复，信用利差相对平稳而二永利差继续收窄。随着 A 股波动率加大，上周股债跷跷板效应弱化，债市情绪有所好转，周三 30 年 国债发行好于预期，加之交易所将融资保证金比例从 80%调高至 100%权 益市场进一步降幅，带动市场进一步修复。周四央行发布会宣布结构性降 息 25BP，但市场预期的降准并未落地，日内债券大幅波动，但随着资金转 松收益率再度回落，10 年期国债再度降至 1.84%附近。 收 益 专 题 上周债市最重要的信息就是周四央行新闻发布会，尽管降准预期落空， 但央行仍然传递了一些不同的信号。首先是央行强调降准降息仍有空间。 央行表示当前汇率稳定，外部因素不构成降息的强约束，而银行净息差出 现企稳迹象，2026 年还有大量存款到期重定价，上周央行下调再贷款等结 构性工具利率，也有助于降低银行付息成本，为降息创造条件而非替代总 量工具。此外，尽管从支持信贷的角度看，1 月降准有一定的必要性，但央 行可能担忧其信号意义过强加剧资本市场过热的风险，因此时点推迟。在 未有政策利率调降带来银 ...