美国大选对宏观产业以及我国出口的影响

Group 1: Polling Data - After the first debate, Trump's polling advantage has widened significantly, with his support in key swing states showing a clear lead over Biden[6] - In the latest polls, Trump's support in seven swing states is notably higher, with five states showing substantial leads over Biden[20] - Biden's job approval rating remains low, with a disapproval rate of 60% as of June 28, 2024[19] Group 2: Election Dynamics - The first debate has negatively impacted Biden's campaign, with his winning probability dropping from 45.0% on June 26 to 30.0% by June 29[33] - The upcoming election is likely to be a rematch between Trump and Biden, following their overwhelming victories in their respective party primaries[10] - Key issues for voters in swing states include the economy and inflation, with many expressing dissatisfaction with Biden's handling of these matters[49] Group 3: Economic Policies - Trump's economic policies during his term included significant tax cuts, with the corporate tax rate reduced from 35% to 21%[68] - Biden's proposed tax increases aim to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and restore the top personal income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%[81] - Both candidates advocate for tariffs on Chinese imports, with Trump suggesting a baseline tariff of 10% on all imports[106]