骑士乳业：内蒙古农牧龙头，扩张持续进行

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its natural resource base and long-term partnerships with key clients, which supports sustainable growth [5][59] - The company has diversified its operations across dairy, sugar, and livestock, enhancing operational efficiency and risk resilience [5][61] - The company raised 238 million yuan through its listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange, which will be used to expand its dairy farming capacity by approximately 50% [5][74] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.256 billion yuan, a 10.46-fold increase from 2013, with a CAGR of 26.43% [13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 94 million yuan, a 5.9-fold increase from 2013, with a CAGR of 19.37% [13] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 237 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.23%, but net profit decreased by 4.18% due to declining product prices [13] Business Segments - The dairy segment is the company's initial business focus, with a stable growth trend observed since 2021 after previous adjustments [80] - The sugar segment, which began in 2018, has become a significant revenue contributor, with production capacity expected to increase as the company enhances its sugar beet planting [85] - The livestock segment has shown steady growth, benefiting from ongoing demand from major clients like Mengniu [80][72] Market Position - The company operates in a fragmented industry, with significant growth potential due to its relatively small size compared to larger competitors [15] - The company has established long-term relationships with major clients, including Mengniu and Hangshi Shancheng, which account for a substantial portion of its revenue [72][59] Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth driven by increased production capacity in both dairy and sugar segments, with projections of 1.436 billion yuan in 2024 [109] - The report suggests a target price range of 4.09 to 5.11 yuan based on a PE ratio of 8-10 times, reflecting the company's growth potential despite current industry challenges [110]