紫金矿业：铜金业务量价齐升，Q2业绩创历史新高

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 18.48 CNY [1][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a historical high in Q2 2024 with a projected net profit of approximately 82.9-91.9 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of about 71%-89% [5][6]. - The company's main products have seen significant growth in both volume and price, contributing to a strong performance in the first half of 2024 [6][7]. - The company has made substantial progress in internal exploration and external acquisitions, enhancing its resource base [7][8]. - Key projects are advancing smoothly, with a strong outlook for growth in both copper and gold production [8][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 293,403 million CNY in 2023, with projections of 376,666 million CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 28% [5][13]. - The net profit for 2023 was 21,119 million CNY, with an expected increase to 31,216 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 48% [5][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.79 CNY in 2024 to 1.71 CNY by 2026 [5][13]. Production and Resource Expansion - In H1 2024, the company achieved gold production of approximately 35.4 tons, copper production of about 51.8 million tons, and silver production of around 210.3 tons, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 5.3%, and 1.3% [6][7]. - The average price of gold in H1 2024 was 523.07 CNY per gram, up 20.44% year-on-year, while copper averaged 74,776.41 CNY per ton, an increase of 10.22% [6][7]. - The company has successfully increased its copper metal resources by 1,837.7 million tons through exploration and acquisitions [7][8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% for copper and 15% for gold over the next two years [8][10]. - Significant projects, including the Kamoa Copper Mine and the expansion of existing operations, are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [8][10]. - The lithium projects are also progressing, with potential production capacity of 15,000 tons by 2025 [10].