GDHEC CO.,LTD(600673) 申万宏源·2024-07-15 04:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance is in line with expectations, with a forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 200-280 million, a significant turnaround from the previous year's loss, representing a growth of 244%-302% YoY [4] - The company's Q2 2024 net profit is expected to be RMB 101-181 million, a YoY increase of 149%-189%, driven by rising refrigerant prices and improved capacity utilization in the electronic components sector [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth of the refrigerant industry, with a total quota of 53,920 tons for third-generation refrigerants [4] - The company is strategically positioning itself in the fluorinated liquid cooling market, targeting AI data centers, optical modules, and energy storage industries [4] - The company is leading the industry upgrade with its advanced laminated foil technology, with plans to expand production capacity significantly by 2027 [4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 11,736 million, with a YoY growth of 8.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be RMB 1,196 million, with an EPS of RMB 0.40 [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 22.1% in 2024E, up from 11.1% in 2023 [5] - ROE is projected to increase to 10.9% in 2024E, compared to -3.0% in 2023 [5] Market Data - The company's stock price closed at RMB 6.85 on July 12, 2024, with a P/B ratio of 2.1 and a dividend yield of 4.91% [2] - The company's market capitalization is RMB 20,561 million, with a total of 3,014 million shares outstanding [2][3] Industry Insights - The domestic air conditioning production in April-June 2024 increased by 22%, 21%, and 9% YoY, respectively, driving strong demand for refrigerants [4] - The prices of refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a in Zhejiang increased significantly in Q2 2024, with R32 prices rising by RMB 10,970/ton compared to Q1 2024 [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the continued growth in the refrigerant market, with long-term contracts for Q3 2024 showing further price increases [4]