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北方华创:塑造刻蚀/薄膜沉积/清洗/热处理平台企业,深度受益国产替代战略发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, reflecting strong growth potential and confidence in its platform-based semiconductor equipment business [7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a platform-based semiconductor equipment enterprise, benefiting from the increasing demand for advanced process and advanced packaging equipment driven by AI development and domestic expansion of companies like ChangXin Memory and Yangtze Memory [7] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 30,282/40,214/50,167 million yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-over-year growth rates of 37.2%/32.8%/24.8% [7] - The company's net profit is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.1%/28.8%/26.2% for 2024-2026, reaching 5,970/7,692/9,710 million yuan [7] Company Overview - The company operates in the semiconductor equipment, vacuum and lithium battery equipment, and precision electronic components sectors, with a strong focus on innovation and R&D [1][18] - It has six R&D and production bases, offering a wide range of semiconductor equipment including etching machines, PVD, ALD, CVD, oxidation/diffusion furnaces, cleaning machines, and gas mass flow meters [1] - The company's products are widely used in integrated circuits, advanced packaging, semiconductor lighting, MEMS, power semiconductors, compound semiconductors, new energy photovoltaics, and flat panel displays [1] Industry Drivers - The AI cycle is expected to drive semiconductor demand, with global semiconductor capacity projected to increase by 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, reaching 33.7 million wafers per month (8-inch equivalent) [7][25] - Advanced packaging is accelerating, with front-end processes being applied to back-end packaging, creating a mid-process intersection between wafer manufacturing and packaging [7][28] - Multiple patterning techniques are enabling breakthroughs in process nodes, with technologies like LELE, SADP, and SAQP being widely used in advanced nodes [36][37][41] - The third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund III) is expected to further support the domestic semiconductor industry, focusing on the entire IC supply chain [44] Product Highlights Etching Equipment - The company has achieved breakthroughs in ICP etching for 12-inch wafers across various technology nodes, with its ICP equipment widely used in polycrystalline silicon and metal etching [2] - CCP etching equipment has been successfully applied in logic, memory, and power semiconductor key processes, providing stable and efficient production support for domestic customers [2] Thin Film Deposition - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio in PVD, CVD, and ALD, with its PVD equipment achieving stable mass production in copper interconnects, aluminum pads, metal hard masks, and other processes [3] - CVD equipment has been developed to meet the demands of dielectric and metal chemical vapor deposition, with key technical indicators reaching industry-leading levels [3] Cleaning and Heat Treatment - The company offers a variety of wet cleaning equipment, achieving breakthroughs in high-end single-wafer processes and full coverage of tank processes [4][6] - Vertical furnace equipment has achieved full coverage in logic and memory process applications, with key technologies such as airflow/temperature field control and precise reaction source delivery [6] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 reached 22,079 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 50.3%, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 65.7% to 3,899 million yuan [8] - Gross margin and net margin have shown an upward trend, with gross margin reaching 43.7% in 2024E and net margin expected to be 19.7% in the same year [8] - The company's R&D investment in 2023 was 4,410 million yuan, accounting for 19.97% of its revenue, with over 7,900 patents applied for and 4,700 patents granted [23]