Haitong Securities·2024-07-15 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.46-6.24 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-60% [5]. - The heavy truck market is showing signs of weak recovery, with cumulative sales of 504,500 units in the first half of 2024, a 3% increase from the same period last year [5]. - The export of heavy trucks is steadily increasing, with 152,000 units exported in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 234 billion yuan, 251 billion yuan, and 269 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 11.8 billion yuan, 13.67 billion yuan, and 15.986 billion yuan for the same years [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 9.014 billion yuan for 2023, increasing to 11.8 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 13.67 billion yuan in 2025 [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.03 yuan for 2023, 1.35 yuan for 2024, and 1.57 yuan for 2025 [7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 21.1% in 2023 to 21.9% by 2026 [9]. Market Position - The company has a leading advantage in the natural gas heavy truck segment, with sales of natural gas tractors increasing by 139% year-on-year in the first five months of 2024 [6]. - The company’s subsidiary, HanDe Axle, reported a production and sales volume of 428,000 axle assemblies in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [6]. Valuation - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11x for 2024, with a target valuation range of 17.58-20.28 yuan based on a P/E of 13-15x [6].