Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the agricultural sector [3][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices are easier to rise than to fall, with a focus on the impact of breeding rotation and farming sentiment on prices [2][17]. - The average price of live pigs this week is 18.62 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 3.16% and a two-week increase of 2.62%. In contrast, the price of piglets has decreased to 666 CNY/head, down 5.13% week-on-week and 6.20% over two weeks [2][17]. - The report anticipates a tightening supply and demand situation from the second quarter to the Spring Festival, leading to a sustained upward trend in pig prices [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector experienced a decline of 2.02% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [9][10]. - Sub-sectors such as feed saw the largest decline at -3.49%, while planting showed a slight increase of +0.04% [12]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 18.62 CNY/kg, with a slight increase observed. The average daily slaughter volume is 132,200 pigs, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.88% [17]. 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.29 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.24%. The price of broiler chicks has risen to 2.12 CNY/chick, up 12.77% week-on-week [23]. 2.3. Planting Sector - The average price of corn is 2,477.74 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.09%. In contrast, the average price of domestic soybeans is 4,478.42 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.67% [28]. 2.4. Aquaculture - Prices for various aquatic products remain stable, with carp averaging 19.00 CNY/kg and shrimp at 300.00 CNY/kg, both showing year-on-year increases [33]. 3. Industry Events - New corn variety "Linyu 6" has been approved for cultivation, showcasing significant yield potential and resilience [36]. - China has purchased 132,000 tons of new U.S. soybeans, marking the first purchase of the year [38].
农林牧渔行业周报:猪价易涨难跌,仔猪价持续下跌或传导能繁增长幅度趋缓
Guotou Securities·2024-07-15 07:00