2024年6月贸易数据解读：6月出口保持强势，进口增速意外转负

Export Performance - In June, the export value increased by 8.6% year-on-year, reaching $307.85 billion, which is better than market expectations and an acceleration of 1 percentage point from May[2][10] - The strong export growth is primarily driven by a low base effect from June last year, where the export growth was -12.4%[2][4] - Exports to developing economies, particularly ASEAN, showed significant improvement, with a 15.0% increase in June, although this was a decline of 7.5 percentage points from May[4] Import Trends - In contrast, June imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weak import momentum[7][20] - The decline in imports is attributed to a drop in import volumes rather than price factors, reflecting weak domestic demand[7][19] - Key commodities such as crude oil and iron ore saw reduced import volumes, with crude oil imports down by 10.8% year-on-year[9] Economic Outlook - The overall export growth for the first half of the year was 3.6%, significantly better than the -3.5% recorded in the same period last year[12] - Future export growth is expected to remain strong in July, potentially reaching around 10.0%, but may weaken later in the year due to rising base effects and declining new export orders[17] - Import growth is projected to turn positive in July, estimated at around 1.0%, driven by a further decline in the previous year's base and a rebound in international oil prices[22]