Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for Nine West Holdings [1] Core Viewpoints - Nine West Holdings has shown resilience in a challenging market, with its market cap surpassing $1 billion in 2023 despite overall market downturn [1] - The company has managed to increase its non-GAAP net profit by 23.3% in 2023 despite an 8.5% decline in revenue, indicating improved profitability [4] - The company has successfully completed one of its three-year plan targets ahead of schedule, achieving a 10% operating margin by the end of 2025 [6] - The stock price has risen by 17.9% since the announcement of the Q1 2024 results, reflecting strong investor confidence [7] Revenue and Profitability - Nine West Holdings' revenue has been stagnant over the past 12 years (2012-2023), with a CAGR of 0%, which is a common trend in the industry [4] - The company's revenue in 2023 was $1.49 billion, down 8.5% YoY, but non-GAAP net profit increased by 23.3% to $150 million [4] - The company has shifted its production to higher-end footwear categories, particularly luxury and high-end fashion, which has improved profitability [5] - Nine West Holdings has reduced its workforce by 6.1% and cut employee benefits by 10.2% in 2023 to improve operational efficiency [5] - The company's Q1 2024 revenue increased by 17.6% YoY, with a 21.9% increase in sales volume, reaching 11.7 million pairs of shoes [5] Geographic and Market Focus - Nine West Holdings primarily serves international brand clients, with over 70% of its revenue coming from Europe and North America between 2014 and 2023 [2] - The company has shifted its production capacity to Southeast Asia to take advantage of lower labor costs, which has helped improve profitability [8] - By 2023, 40-50% of the production capacity for international sports brands like Adidas and Nike was already in Vietnam, reflecting a broader industry trend [12] Historical Context and Industry Trends - Nine West Holdings was founded in 1982 during the rise of Taiwan's OEM industry and benefited from the opening up of China's economy [10] - The company's profitability peaked in 2007-2008, with gross margin, operating margin, and net margin reaching 23.6%, 12.8%, and 12.2%, respectively [10] - Rising labor costs in China and stagnant order prices from luxury brands have eroded profitability over the years, leading to a shift in production to Southeast Asia [11] - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 accelerated the company's decision to close most of its factories in China and relocate to Southeast Asia [8] Shareholder Returns and Financial Health - Nine West Holdings has a high dividend payout ratio, averaging 75.6% since its IPO, with a 74.4% payout ratio in 2023 [16] - The company's PB ratio has increased from 0.8 in 2023 to 1.4 in June 2024, reflecting improved market valuation [15] - The company has maintained a conservative approach to capital expenditure, with free cash flow of $160 million in 2023 and cumulative free cash flow of $1.16 billion since its IPO [18] - Nine West Holdings has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 24% and a negligible interest-bearing debt ratio of 0.5% as of the end of 2023 [17] Industry Challenges and Risks - The OEM model is inherently risky, as European luxury brands often work with multiple suppliers to avoid dependency on a single manufacturer [19] - Despite strong management, the company is still subject to industry cyclicality and external market forces [19]
从九兴控股看代工模式兴衰：再优秀的经营，也难逃行业周期宿命