友邦保险-R(81299)、京东健康-R(86618)、百度集团-SWR(89888)上一交易日沽空比率位于前三位，分别 为100.00%、100.00%、95.46%。泡泡玛特(09992)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、小米集团-W(01810)的沽空金 额位居前三，分别为13.00 亿元、12.60 亿元、10.64 亿元。百度集团-SWR(89888)、深圳高速公路股份 (00548)、商汤-WR(80020)的偏离值位居前三，分别为62.11%、37.02%、34.65%。 前十大沽空比率排行 前十大沽空偏离值排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率 | 偏离值↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 百度集团-SWR(89888) | 119.43 万元 | 95.46% | 62.11% | | 深圳高速公路股份(00548) | 164.67 万元 | 48.73% | 37.02% | | 商汤-WR(80020) | 15.48 万元 | 87.41% | 34.65% | | 中国平安-R(82318) | 245.20 万元 | 72.58% | 33.06% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

九兴2025年第四季销售额同比增长0.8%，低于该行预期的4%，其中代工(OEM)销量因出货延迟而持 平，平均售价则同比下跌0.4%。该行对公司2025年下半年及2026年前景转趋略为审慎。管理层指， 2025年下半年公司的利润率面临多项挑战，并预期2026年订单渠道将放缓，因关税持续影响整个价值 链。 高盛发布研报称，九兴控股(01836)2025至27年的净利润预测下调9%至16%，目标价由18.2港元降至16.5 港元，维持"买入"评级，因其估值并未过高; 预期随着去年关税影响逐渐消退，行业环境将逐步改善。 ...

九兴2025年第四季销售额同比增长0.8%，低于该行预期的4%，其中代工(OEM)销量因出货延迟而持 平，平均售价则同比下跌0.4%。该行对公司2025年下半年及2026年前景转趋略为审慎。管理层指， 2025年下半年公司的利润率面临多项挑战，并预期2026年订单渠道将放缓，因关税持续影响整个价值 链。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，九兴控股(01836)2025至27年的净利润预测下调9%至16%，目标 价由18.2港元降至16.5港元，维持"买入"评级，因其估值并未过高; 预期随着去年关税影响逐渐消退，行 业环境将逐步改善。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company's revenue grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with shipment volume remaining flat. The company is positioned for investment in 2026, maintaining its commitment to return value to shareholders [2][10]. - The company has faced initial challenges in increasing production capacity in Indonesia and the Philippines, but has made progress. Efficiency in the Indonesian factory is expected to improve, reaching approximately 95% by January 2026 [10]. - The company plans to return up to $60 million in additional cash to shareholders annually through share buybacks and special dividends, alongside maintaining a typical payout ratio of 70% for 2025-2026 [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: $1,545 million - 2025E: $1,568 million - 2026E: $1,567 million - 2027E: $1,661 million - Net profit estimates are: - 2024: $171 million - 2025E: $138 million - 2026E: $151 million - 2027E: $165 million - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be: - 2024: 9.30 - 2025E: 11.53 - 2026E: 10.54 - 2027E: 9.62 [4][12].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock index opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.29% at 26,844.96 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.11% at 5,822.18 points, the National Enterprises Index down 0.5% at 9,220.81 points, and the Red Chip Index down 0.34% at 4,139.41 points [1] Company News - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.017 million shares for HKD 636 million at a price range of HKD 619-632 [2] - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 3.9 million shares for HKD 148 million at a price range of HKD 37.86-37.92 [3] - Six Fortune Group (00590.HK) reported a retail value increase of 26%, retail income increase of 17%, and same-store sales increase of 15% in Q3, exceeding expectations [3] - China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) reported a 11.89% increase in passenger capacity and a 19.28% increase in cargo capacity for December 2025 [6] Industry Insights - Tianfeng Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market has a basis for short-term valuation recovery and sentiment improvement, but upward momentum may be constrained by high overseas interest rates [7] - The firm suggested a focus on technology and consumer sectors that are relatively undervalued [7] - According to Huatai Securities, the market is experiencing a shift towards a bullish sentiment, with historical data indicating a high probability of price increases following a period of panic [8] - Industry recommendations include prioritizing leading companies in the AI sector and exploring opportunities in insurance, banking, energy, and new consumption areas [8]

消息面上，九兴控股昨日公布，于2025年第四季度，集团未经审核综合收入同比上升0.8%至 3.886亿美 元；于2025年未经审核综合收入上升1.5%至15.678亿美元。鞋履制造业务方面，出货量于2025年第四季 度按年持平，于2025年全年则按年增加约3.8%，主要受运动类别以及公司正为之提升产量的新客户强 健的订单需求所带动。两段期间的平均售价皆有所下调，乃由于运动类别的增长所致，而其平均售价较 低。 九兴控股(01836)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.25%，报14.63港元，成交额8182.73万港元。 大和发布研报称，将九兴控股评级由"买入"降至"持有"，目标价由18港元下调至15.8港元。大和表示， 该公司第四季度业绩受到出货延迟及持续效率问题的影响，导致约25万双鞋的出货延迟至2026年初，预 计对2025年净利润造成200万美元的影响。大和预计公司2025年净利润将低于1.4亿美元，较市场预期的 1.56亿美元为低。2026年净利润预测为1.53亿美元，低于市场预期的1.67亿美元，主要考虑到三个新工 厂的开业亏损、两个中国运动鞋工厂可能缩减规模的遣散费用，以及工厂效率问题等因素。该行预期， 公 ...

智通财经APP获悉，九兴控股(01836)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.25%，报14.63港元，成交额8182.73万港 元。 消息面上，九兴控股昨日公布，于2025年第四季度，集团未经审核综合收入同比上升0.8%至 3.886亿美 元；于2025年未经审核综合收入上升1.5%至15.678亿美元。鞋履制造业务方面，出货量于2025年第四季 度按年持平，于2025年全年则按年增加约3.8%，主要受运动类别以及公司正为之提升产量的新客户强 健的订单需求所带动。两段期间的平均售价皆有所下调，乃由于运动类别的增长所致，而其平均售价较 低。 大和发布研报称，将九兴控股评级由"买入"降至"持有"，目标价由18港元下调至15.8港元。大和表示， 该公司第四季度业绩受到出货延迟及持续效率问题的影响，导致约25万双鞋的出货延迟至2026年初，预 计对2025年净利润造成200万美元的影响。大和预计公司2025年净利润将低于1.4亿美元，较市场预期的 1.56亿美元为低。2026年净利润预测为1.53亿美元，低于市场预期的1.67亿美元，主要考虑到三个新工 厂的开业亏损、两个中国运动鞋工厂可能缩减规模的遣散费用，以及工厂效率问题 ...

Major Events - Giant Bio (02367) received the Medical Device Registration Certificate from the National Medical Products Administration for its recombinant type I α1 collagen and sodium hyaluronate composite solution [1] - Jitu Express-W (01519) plans to subscribe for 226 million H shares of SF Holding and issue 822 million Class B shares to SF Holding [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) signed a cooperation and equity transfer agreement for the Shapingou Molybdenum Mine project [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) subsidiary signed an Investment Option Agreement with First Quantum for exploration cooperation in Kazakhstan's mining projects [1] - Derin Holdings (01709) received conditional approval from the CSRC for Derin Securities to provide virtual asset consulting services [1] - GAC Group (02238) subsidiary GAC Trumpchi received 100 million yuan in funding for industrial transformation and development [1] - Juteng International (03336) suspected of a cyber attack and has initiated a comprehensive investigation [1] Operating Performance - China Southern Airlines (01055) increased passenger capacity input by 11.89% year-on-year in December [1] - Air China (00753) reported a 10% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in December [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) saw a 7.61% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in December [1] - China Metallurgical Group (01618) new contract amount for 2025 is 1,113.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year [1] - ZhongAn Online (06060) projected total original insurance premium income of approximately 35.643 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 6.66% year-on-year [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (01164) produced a total of 702.5 tons of natural uranium in the fourth quarter [1] - Jiuxing Holdings (01836) reported a 0.8% year-on-year increase in comprehensive income to 388.6 million USD in the fourth quarter [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) issued a profit warning, expecting annual net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 20 billion and 20.8 billion yuan, an increase of 47.80% to 53.71% year-on-year [1] - Chongqing Iron and Steel (01053) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Huiju Technology (01729) issued a profit warning, expecting annual net profit to increase by approximately 60% to 70% year-on-year [1]

格隆汇1月15日丨九兴控股(01836.HK)宣布，公司将于2026年3月19日(星期四)举行董事会会议，以(其中 包括)考虑及审议通过公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31日止年度的全年业绩，及考虑派发末期股息 之建议。 ...