证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 服装家纺 高端鞋履制造商龙头，开发设计能力领先 ——九兴控股深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司深耕高端鞋履开发制造，凭借领先的开发设计能力，差异化绑定高附加值 的高端运动、奢侈、时尚品牌客户。19 年管理层顺利接班后，时尚奢侈品类客 户拓展加速，运动品类客户份额持续提升，公司绽放新活力。23 年公司开启第 一个 23-25 三年规划，利润 CAGR 增长目标为低双位数。 ❑ 卓越高端鞋履制造商，23 年开启的首个三年规划超预期推进 全球领先的高端优质鞋履开发制造商，产能布局中国、越南、孟加拉、印尼、菲 律宾，客户涵盖 Nike、deckers、Balenciaga、Cole Haan 等，涵盖运动、休闲、奢 侈、时尚等品类，2019 年管理层顺利接班后，奢侈时尚品类客户拓展加速，运 动品类客户份额持续提升，19-24 年运动、奢华收入 CAGR 分别为 8.5%、 6.7%。23 年公司启动第一个三年规划，目标在 2025 年底 OPM 达 10%，利润复 合增速达低双位数，23 年 OPM 达 11%，创历史新高，提前达成规划目标。 ❑ 竞争优势：领先开发设计能力，深度绑定高端品牌 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 九兴控股（1836）公司年报点评 2025 年 3 月 25 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 分析师:盛开 Tel:(021)23154510 Email:sk11787@haitong.com 证书:S0850519100002 | [Table_StockInfo] 3 月 24 日收盘价（港元） | 18.02 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） 9.90-19.44 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 829 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 14930 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《24Q4 量增超预期，看好产能扩张+新客订单 | | | 带动盈利水平提升》2025.01.15 | | | 《24Q3 订单稳健增长，入通后流动性改善》 | | | 2024.10.22 | | | 《发布 3 年回购和特别股息方案，9 月入港股通 | | | 在即》2024.8.26 | | | 《发布盈利预喜，预计 24H1 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對 其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內 容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （股份代號︰1836） （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） 截至二零二四年十二月三十一日止年度的全年業績 | 摘要： | | | --- | --- | | － | 出貨量增加8.2% | | － | 經營利潤增加15.7%至1.845億美元 | | － | 經營利潤率由去年的10.7%增至11.9% | | － | 純利增加21.2%至1.701億美元 | | － | 強健淨現金狀況4.176億美元，較二零二三年十二月三十一日的2.874億美元增加 | | | 45.3% | | － | 建議派發末期股息每股50港仙及來自超額現金回報計劃的額外特別股息每股56 | | | # 港仙。二零二四年全年股息總額 為171港仙 | # 須待股東於應屆股東週年大會上批准建議末期股息及特別股息 * 僅供識別 1 九興控股有限公司（「本公司」）董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）欣然公佈本公司及其附屬公司 （統稱「本集團 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 19.35 per share, representing an 11% upside potential [5][16]. Core Insights - The company experienced a 3.5% annual revenue growth, reaching USD 1.55 billion, driven by an 8.2% increase in shipments to 53 million pairs, despite a 4.4% decline in average selling price (ASP) [12][13]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its order structure, which is expected to enhance profitability, particularly with new luxury clients and a focus on high-margin products [14][15]. - A significant cash return of USD 180 million is planned for shareholders from 2024 to 2026, with an expected total return per share of 9.7% [16]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2022 was USD 1.63 billion, with a projected revenue of USD 1.49 billion for 2023, and expected growth to USD 1.64 billion by 2026 [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from USD 141 million in 2023 to USD 205 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% [5][9]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) and EBIT margin reached a decade high in 2023, indicating improved operational efficiency [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.60, based on the current price of HKD 17.62 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in footwear development and manufacturing, with over 30 years of experience in the footwear OEM industry, focusing on expanding product categories and developing high-quality clients [5][11]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of over 70% annually, except in 2020, and plans to distribute additional cash through share buybacks and special dividends [5][21]. - The company has successfully optimized its customer and product category mix, leading to improved operational efficiency and production capacity expansion [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a trusted partner for leading global brands, including Nike and Balenciaga, and has launched its own brand, Stella Luna [11][12]. - The management team possesses extensive industry experience, which aids in the company's sustained focus on business development [12]. 2. Customer and Product Optimization - The company has invested over USD 40 million annually in R&D since 2020, with a high R&D expenditure-to-revenue ratio of 2.68% in 2023, surpassing competitors [6][25]. - The revenue distribution among product categories has shifted, with fashion and sports products increasing their share, while casual products have decreased [29][34]. 3. Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced labor costs as a percentage of revenue, achieving a labor cost ratio of 9.8% in 2023, down from 11.5% in 2021 [7][43]. - The gross margin has improved significantly, reaching 25.8% in 2024H1, driven by better product mix and production efficiency [20][43]. 4. Market Demand and Competitive Landscape - Demand for footwear is stabilizing, with reduced inventory pressure observed in the U.S. apparel market since mid-2023 [44]. - The concentration of suppliers for major brands like Nike has increased, indicating a more favorable competitive landscape for companies with strong production capabilities [50]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are USD 16.2 billion, USD 17.6 billion, and USD 19.2 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of USD 1.7 billion, USD 1.9 billion, and USD 2.1 billion [8][52]. - The target market capitalization is set at USD 2.1 billion, with a target price of USD 2.52, reflecting a valuation based on a 11x PE ratio for 2025 [55].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.60, based on the current price of HKD 17.62 [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a global leader in footwear development and manufacturing, with over 30 years of experience in the industry, focusing on high-quality customer relationships and product diversification [5][11]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of over 70% annually, except in 2020, and plans to distribute additional cash through share buybacks and special dividends [5][21]. - The company has successfully optimized its customer and product mix, leading to improved operational efficiency and production capacity expansion [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a trusted partner for leading global brands, including Nike and Balenciaga, and has launched its own brand, Stella Luna [11]. - The management team possesses extensive industry experience, which supports the company's focus on sustainable growth [12]. 2. Customer and Product Optimization - The company has invested over USD 40 million annually in R&D since 2020, with a high R&D expenditure-to-revenue ratio of 2.68% in 2023, surpassing competitors [25]. - The product mix has been optimized, with fashion and sports categories increasing their revenue share, while the leisure category has decreased [29]. - The company has diversified its manufacturing bases across Vietnam, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh, allowing for flexible capacity adjustments [34][35]. 3. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of USD 15.45 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of -1.50% from 2015 to 2024, but has shown a strong recovery with a net profit of USD 0.92 billion in 2024H1, up 63.99% year-on-year [17][20]. - The gross margin improved to 25.8% in 2024H1, driven by better product mix and production efficiency [20][43]. 4. Demand and Competitive Landscape - Demand for footwear is stabilizing, with reduced inventory pressure observed in the U.S. apparel market since mid-2023 [44]. - The concentration of suppliers in the footwear industry is increasing, with the number of Nike's footwear suppliers decreasing, which may benefit the company due to its strong production capabilities [50]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of USD 16.2 billion, USD 17.6 billion, and USD 19.2 billion from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of USD 1.7 billion, USD 1.9 billion, and USD 2.1 billion [52][53]. - The target market capitalization is set at USD 21 billion, with a target price of USD 2.52, reflecting a PE ratio of 11x for 2025 [55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to provide an additional cash return of $180 million over the next three years, with a total return rate of 11.1% anticipated for 2024. The company plans to maintain a 70% dividend payout ratio and return up to $60 million annually through special dividends or buybacks, totaling $180 million [4]. - The company has shown stable order growth in Q3 2024, with a revenue increase of 0.6% to $390 million. Manufacturing revenue grew by 0.2% to $380 million, with a shipment volume increase of 5.7% to 12.9 million pairs, although the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.9% to $29.3 [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin and EBIT margin reached a ten-year high in 2023, indicating improved production efficiency and profitability for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at $1,493 million, with a slight increase to $1,497 million in 2024, followed by $1,563 million in 2025 and $1,640 million in 2026. Year-over-year growth rates are expected to be -8% in 2023, 0% in 2024, 4% in 2025, and 5% in 2026 [5][7]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from $141 million in 2023 to $166 million in 2024, $186 million in 2025, and $205 million in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 20%, 17%, and 12% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.6% in 2023 to 25.3% in 2024, and further to 25.9% by 2026 [5][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect since September 9, leading to improved liquidity and significant net inflows from southbound funds [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 10-11 times, with a corresponding fair value range of HKD 15.80 to 17.38 per share [4][5].

Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating profit margin of 12.9% in the first half of 2024, up from 10.7% in 2023, exceeding initial targets[3]. - Revenue and shipment volume increased significantly in the first half of 2024, driven by early shipments to clients in anticipation of the summer travel season[3]. - The company's consolidated revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, increased by 7.5% to $770 million, compared to $716.1 million in the same period of 2023[10]. - The gross profit grew by 20.0% to $198.9 million, with a gross margin of 25.8%, up from 23.1% in the previous year[11]. - Operating profit surged by 52.9% to $99.1 million, with an operating profit margin of 12.9%, compared to 9.0% in the same period last year[12]. - Net profit reached $91.5 million, significantly higher than $55.2 million in the prior year, with adjusted net profit at $392.9 million, up from $60.3 million[13]. - The group reported a profit before tax of $572,005,000 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up from $546,018,000 in the same period of 2023, indicating a growth of approximately 4.8%[41]. - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were $0.114, compared to $0.070 for the same period in 2023, representing a significant increase of 62.9%[45]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.65 per share, consistent with a long-term payout ratio of 70%[3]. - The company plans to return up to USD 60 million to shareholders annually over the next three years through a combination of share buybacks and dividends[3]. - A mid-term dividend of HKD 0.65 per share was declared, maintaining a payout ratio of approximately 70% based on adjusted net profit[17]. - The group declared an interim dividend of 65 Hong Kong cents per share, amounting to approximately $67,857,000, compared to 45 Hong Kong cents per share in the previous year[44]. Production and Operational Efficiency - The company is focusing on expanding high-margin product capacity, starting with a new factory in Solo, Indonesia, to optimize production efficiency[3]. - The company aims to enhance production capacity in its new factory in Indonesia and continue expanding its manufacturing facilities in Bangladesh[16]. - The company is enhancing its production capabilities in Bangladesh and Indonesia to stabilize its cost base and improve operational efficiency[8]. - The company’s non-sport footwear production facilities have been operating near full capacity since last year, despite a slowdown in the global luxury market[3]. Cash Flow and Financial Position - The company maintained a strong net cash position of $326.1 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to $162.5 million a year earlier[14]. - As of June 30, 2024, the group's cash and cash equivalents amounted to approximately $334.6 million, an increase of 92.9% compared to $173.5 million on June 30, 2023[18]. - The net cash inflow from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was $99.2 million, significantly higher than $28.2 million for the same period in 2023[18]. - The group’s current ratio as of June 30, 2024, was 3.2, indicating strong liquidity compared to 3.1 on December 31, 2023[18]. - The group reported a decrease in cash outflow for investing activities to $15.7 million, down 29.9% from $22.4 million for the same period in 2023[18]. Employee and Workforce Metrics - The total number of direct employees increased to approximately 42,100 as of June 30, 2024, compared to about 39,900 on December 31, 2023[21]. - The total remuneration paid to key management personnel was $871,000, down from $1,066,000 in the previous year, indicating a decrease of 18.3%[100]. Stock Options and Incentive Plans - The company’s long-term incentive plan allows for the issuance of stock options, with a total of 27,970,000 options granted under the plan[59]. - The company has a practice of not cash settling stock options, and all options are accounted for as equity-settled plans[64]. - The new share option plan ("2024 Plan") was approved by shareholders on May 9, 2024, and is effective for ten years from the adoption date[133]. - The purpose of the 2024 Plan is to reward qualified participants for their contributions to the group's growth, attract and retain talent, and align the interests of participants with those of shareholders[134]. - The total number of stock options granted across the three periods amounts to 34,000,000, with varying exercise prices and vesting schedules[126]. Sustainability and ESG Ratings - The company received an upgraded MSCI ESG rating to "A" as part of its commitment to sustainability and transparency[4]. Market and Revenue Breakdown - North America and Europe accounted for 46.8% and 24.6% of total revenue, respectively, while China, Asia (excluding China), and other regions contributed 16.7%, 9.0%, and 2.9%[10]. - Revenue from footwear and handbag sales in the manufacturing segment was $769,067 thousand, with significant contributions from various regions including North America at $360,241 thousand[39]. Governance and Compliance - The company has complied with all provisions of the corporate governance code during the six-month period ending June 30, 2024[118]. - The company emphasizes a governance model that combines corporate governance with business governance to create long-term value[119].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, expecting a total return exceeding the relevant market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [3][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a 66% increase in net profit, with a 7.5% year-on-year revenue growth to USD 770 million in the first half of 2024. Gross profit margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 25.8% [2][8]. - The company plans to return an additional USD 180 million in cash to shareholders over three years through special dividends or buybacks, with a total return rate of 13.7% [3][8]. - The company will be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective September 9, which is expected to enhance stock liquidity and attention [3][8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of USD 91.5 million, with a net profit margin of 11.9%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - Shipment volume reached 26.5 million pairs, a 12.3% increase year-on-year, while the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.4% to USD 28.3 [2][8]. - The company anticipates net profits of USD 166 million, USD 186 million, and USD 205 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 17.4%, 12.1%, and 10.2% [3][8]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and increasing capacity utilization, particularly in sports and fashion segments, which saw revenue growth of 13% and 10%, respectively [2][8]. - New customer acquisitions in the fashion and luxury segments, including Stuart Weitzman and Miu Miu, contributed to revenue growth [2][8]. - The company plans to expand its manufacturing capacity in Bangladesh and Indonesia, targeting a non-China and non-Vietnam capacity of 25% by 2024 [2][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Views - The company has announced a three-year share buyback and special dividend plan, with the stock expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in September [3] - The company achieved a net profit increase of 66% due to product mix optimization and improved production capacity utilization, with a revenue growth of 7.5% year-on-year to $770 million in H1 2024 [3] - The company plans to return an additional $180 million in cash to shareholders over the next three years, with a total return rate of 13.7% [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be $1.497 billion, with a slight increase of 0% year-on-year [4] - Net profit is expected to grow to $166 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [4] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 25.3% in 2024, up from 24.6% in 2023 [4] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity in Bangladesh and Indonesia, aiming for 25% of its total capacity to be outside China and Vietnam by 2024 [3] - The manufacturing revenue contribution from China, Vietnam, and other Asian regions is expected to be 28%, 51%, and 21% respectively in H1 2024 [3] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.65 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 71.5% [3] - The total expected cash return to shareholders over three years includes a maximum of $60 million annually through special dividends or buybacks [3] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a 15% absolute increase over the past month, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [2]