Core Viewpoint - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.7% in Q3 2025, driven by growth in manufacturing revenue and shipment volume, despite a decline in average selling price (ASP) [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue reached $400 million, with manufacturing revenue at $390 million, and shipment volume increased by 7.8% to 13.9 million pairs [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of $1.18 billion, with manufacturing revenue at $1.15 billion and total shipment volume up by 5.1% to 41.4 million pairs [1] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70% in 2025 and 2026, returning up to $60 million annually to shareholders through share buybacks and special dividends [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Strategy - The company is set to expand its total production capacity by 20 million pairs starting in 2025, focusing on enhancing capacity at its new factory in Indonesia and launching a second factory in Bangladesh [1][2] - The company aims to improve production efficiency at its Indonesian and Philippine facilities by the second half of 2025, although profitability may face short-term pressure [2] - The company is committed to developing its handbag and accessories manufacturing business as a core growth driver, having recently acquired a small handbag factory in Vietnam to enhance production quality and efficiency [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is on track to achieve its three-year plan (2023-2025) with a target of 10% operating profit margin and low double-digit compound annual growth rate for after-tax profits, having exceeded these targets in 2023 and 2024 [2] - The company continues to diversify its product mix and expand its customer base, with expectations of strong demand for its product development and production capacity despite current market uncertainties [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to $1.58 billion, $1.66 billion, and $1.76 billion, with net profits projected at $160 million, $170 million, and $190 million respectively [3]

Group 1 - The overall probability of achieving long-term excess returns in the consumer sector is greater compared to other industries, with consumer stocks serving as a stable "ballast" [1][18][19] - The food and beverage, and home appliance sectors show a trend of excess returns that can be divided into two phases: pricing boom and pricing stability, with ROE growth surpassing the overall market [1][19] - The electrical equipment sector benefits from sustained demand and has a higher historical probability of achieving long-term excess returns compared to other cyclical industries [1][19] Group 2 - Recent industry trends indicate that coal, oil and petrochemicals, electrical equipment, machinery, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automotive, non-bank finance, public utilities, and retail are on an upward trajectory, while food and beverage, home appliances, banking, real estate, and environmental protection are declining [2][22] - The report predicts that industries such as rail transit equipment, automotive parts, commercial vehicles, and lighting equipment will perform well in the next four weeks [2][22] Group 3 - The convertible bond market saw an increase this week, with the China Securities convertible bond index rising by 1.47% and the weighted average rising by 1.37% [3][28] - The overall market weighted average conversion value increased to 101.05 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 40.44% [3][28][29] - The report highlights that sectors like defense, electronics, and computers led the market gains, while communications and beauty care lagged [3][28] Group 4 - The report on Dinglong Co. indicates a projected revenue of approximately 945 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of about 4.20% [7] - The CMP polishing pad business is expected to continue growing, with a 51% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [7] - The semiconductor display materials segment is also seeing a steady increase in market share, with new products receiving positive feedback [7] Group 5 - Yangjie Technology reported a revenue of 5.348 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.89% [8] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in automotive electronics and artificial intelligence, which are driving order and shipment growth [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 1.256 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.728 billion yuan respectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiu Xing Holdings (01836), adjusting profit forecasts due to a relatively weak consumer environment while still expecting revenue and net profit growth in the coming years [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to $1.58 billion, $1.66 billion, and $1.76 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates of $1.62 billion, $1.71 billion, and $1.81 billion [1] - Net profit estimates for the same years are maintained at $160 million, $170 million, and $190 million, consistent with prior forecasts [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 11x, 10x, and 9x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to achieve a 10% operating profit margin and a low double-digit compound annual growth rate in after-tax profits by the end of its three-year plan (2023-2025), having already exceeded these targets in 2023 and 2024 [1] - Continuous improvement in product category mix, diversification, and expansion of the customer base are key strategies moving forward [1] - The company plans to optimize production capacity between luxury, high-end fashion categories, and new sports category clients, with new client shipments expected to begin in the second half of the year [1] Group 3: Business Development - The company is committed to making its handbag and accessories manufacturing business a core growth driver, targeting the introduction of more high-end clients [2] - Accelerating the development of this business will be a focus in the next three-year plan starting in 2026 [2] - A recent acquisition of a small handbag and accessories factory in Vietnam aims to leverage high-end production expertise and enhance the quality and efficiency of the company's manufacturing operations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at HKD 16.33, indicating a potential upside of 10%-20% over the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 3.7% year-on-year to USD 400 million in Q3 2025, driven by demand in the sports category and new customer acquisitions [1]. - The company aims to expand its total production capacity by 20 million pairs starting in 2025, focusing on enhancing production efficiency in Indonesia and Bangladesh [2]. - The three-year plan (2023-2025) is on track to achieve a 10% operating profit margin and a low double-digit compound annual growth rate in after-tax profits [3]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70% in 2025 and 2026, returning up to USD 60 million annually to shareholders through share buybacks and special dividends [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue increase of 1.7% year-on-year to USD 1.18 billion, with manufacturing revenue up 1.6% to USD 1.15 billion [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 3.1% to USD 27.7 due to a lower average price in the sports category [1]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company is set to enhance its production capacity by 20 million pairs, with new facilities expected to be operational by the second half of 2026 [2]. - The production efficiency in Indonesia and the Philippines is anticipated to improve gradually starting in the second half of 2025 [2]. Strategic Goals - The company is focused on diversifying its product mix and expanding its customer base, particularly in the luxury and high-end fashion categories [3]. - The acquisition of a small handbag and accessories factory in Vietnam aims to elevate the quality and efficiency of its manufacturing capabilities in this segment [3]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to USD 1.58 billion, USD 1.66 billion, and USD 1.76 billion respectively, with net profits projected at USD 160 million, USD 170 million, and USD 190 million [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth despite short-term challenges, with a strong medium to long-term order certainty and a gradual recovery in profitability expected [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of $400 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with manufacturing revenue at $390 million, also up 3.6% year-on-year [1] - The shipment volume reached 13.9 million pairs, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, while the average selling price (ASP) was $28.2, down 3.8% year-on-year [1] - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of $161 million, $179 million, and $198 million for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 11%, and 11% respectively [2] Group 2: Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company is addressing short-term production efficiency issues, with improvements noted since June 2025, leading to a resolution of efficiency problems and better preparation for future capacity expansions [1] - The company plans to add 20 million pairs of new capacity to support business growth over the next three years, driven by strong customer orders, particularly in the sports sector [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong recommendation rating, supported by its position as a leading manufacturer in the sports fashion footwear sector, with stable core customer orders and ongoing new customer acquisition [2] - The company is committed to a fixed dividend policy of over 70% and plans to repurchase or issue special dividends of $60 million annually [2]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 23 日 九兴控股（01836.HK） 25Q3 订单量增价减，生产效率逐步恢复正常 消费品/轻工纺服 25Q3 收入增长 4%，出货量+8%，出货价-4%；短期产能效率影响逐步消除， 虽然短期盈利能力承压，但中长期订单确定性强，盈利能力有望逐步回升，我 们小幅下调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年净利润 1.61 亿美元、1.79 亿美元、 1.98 亿美元，同比增速为-6%、11%、11%，对应 25PE11X，26PE10X，维持 强烈推荐评级。 ❑ 风险提示：汇率波动影响利润风险、新工厂拓产进度不及预期风险、海外需 求不佳导致公司接单承压风险、关税影响利润风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元,USD) | 1499 | 1545 | 1578 | 1660 | 1753 | | 同比增长 | -8% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 6% | | 营业利润(百万元, ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，维持九兴控股(01836)"买入"评级，预计25-27年公司实现收 入15.7/16.4/17.5亿美元，归母净利润分别为1.5/1.7/1.9亿美元，预计25年分红率维持70%，且公司承诺 2025-2026年均有6000万美元的回购或特别股息，对应股息率10%。公司产能稀缺客户订单充沛保障收 入稳健成长，印尼和孟加拉新产能有序扩张，短期产能爬坡利润率波动不改长期向好趋势。 报告中称，九兴2026年客户反馈积极，订单需求旺盛，新客户拓展顺利，且规模较大订单充沛，同时第 一大客户订单稳健。目前产能拓展成关键变量，公司预计新增2000万双新产能支持未来3年计划的业务 增长，印尼梭罗新工厂预计仍有700万双产能逐步提升，孟加拉新工厂预计仍可扩充300万双，印尼最大 客户专属工厂新产能预计26H2投产，贡献1000-1500万双新产能。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Stella International, but it indicates a positive outlook based on strong order visibility and capacity expansion plans. Core Insights - Stella International reported total revenue of USD 1.179 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.7%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached USD 402 million, up 3.7% year-over-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in shipment volume, although partially offset by a 3.8% decline in average selling price (ASP) [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Shipment Performance - In 3Q25, the footwear manufacturing revenue was USD 392 million, marking a 3.6% year-over-year increase, with shipment volume approximately 13.9 million pairs, up 7.8% year-over-year. The growth in shipment volume was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year due to early shipments related to the Paris Olympics [2][7]. ASP and Product Mix - The ASP for the quarter was around USD 28.2 per pair, down 3.8% year-over-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix towards lower-priced sports footwear. Management noted that ASP changes are mainly driven by customer mix rather than raw material costs, with potential for recovery if new capacity is allocated to high-end clients [3][4][8]. Capacity Expansion and Customer Demand - Management highlighted that new sports brands have joined as customers, and fourth-quarter orders are largely secured, indicating high order visibility for the next two to three years. The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion to meet this demand while optimizing resource allocation [3][8][9]. Operational Efficiency - The efficiency of factories in Indonesia and the Philippines is improving, with the Indonesian factory showing continuous improvement since June. The Philippine factory has reduced production lines to prioritize stable yield, adhering to a principle of minimizing waste [9][10]. Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - Cost pressures remain manageable, with an estimated tariff sharing impact of around USD 8 million for 2025. Management plans to adopt a more cautious approach to capital expenditure, with expectations for an increase to support mid- to long-term growth needs [10][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company commits to maintaining a payout ratio of around 70% in 2025 and 2026, with additional returns to shareholders through share repurchases and special dividends, aiming to restore profit margins to normalized levels close to 12% [11].

Core Viewpoint - Jiuxing Holdings (01836) reported an increase in unaudited consolidated revenue for the three months ending September 30, 2025, rising by 3.7% to $404.2 million compared to $389.7 million in 2024 [1] - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company's unaudited consolidated revenue increased by 1.7% to $1.1792 billion, up from $1.1597 billion in 2024 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Financial Performance** - The company's revenue for the three-month period increased to $404.2 million, reflecting a 3.7% growth year-over-year [1] - For the nine-month period, revenue reached $1.1792 billion, marking a 1.7% increase compared to the previous year [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jiuxing Holdings (01836) reported an increase in unaudited consolidated revenue for the three months ending September 30, 2025, rising by 3.7% to USD 404.2 million compared to USD 389.7 million in 2024 [1] - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company's unaudited consolidated revenue increased by 1.7% to USD 1.1792 billion, up from USD 1.1597 billion in 2024 [1]