华阳股份：Q2业绩受限产和成本税费拖累，中长期产能增长明确

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 8.41 CNY and a fair value of 10.96 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance is constrained by production limits and increased costs due to tax adjustments, with a significant expected decline in net profit for the first half of the year [2][3]. - The company is progressing with capacity expansion projects, including an increase in production capacity at its Ping Shu coal mine to 5 million tons per year, and plans for additional capacity of 15 million tons across various projects [3]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of over 400 MW for sodium-ion batteries, indicating a strategic move into the renewable energy sector [3]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.86 CNY, 1.16 CNY, and 1.40 CNY respectively, with a maintained fair value of 10.96 CNY per share [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 11.1 to 15.1 billion CNY for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of 49.9% to 63.1% [3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 21.839 billion CNY, down 23.4% from 2023, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [3][6]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 8.326 billion CNY, with a net profit forecast of 3.108 billion CNY [3][6]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively working on increasing its coal production capacity, with ongoing projects expected to contribute significantly to future output [3]. - The Ping Shu coal mine's capacity has been officially increased from 900,000 tons to 5 million tons per year, with additional projects in the pipeline [3]. Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 50% for 2023, enhancing shareholder returns [3].