国内观察：2024年6月经济数据-经济增速回落，制造业动力相对较强

Economic Overview - In Q2 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 5.1% and down from 5.3% in Q1[10] - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was 5.0%[5] Consumption Trends - In June 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 2.0%, down from 3.7% in May and below the expected 4.0%[10] - The three-year compound growth rate for June was 2.7%, lower than May's 3.2%[36] - Restaurant income in June increased by 5.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 5.0% in May, while retail sales of goods fell to 1.5%[37] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in June showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.9%, consistent with the previous month's 4.0%[10] - Manufacturing investment remained strong with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in June, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment in June had a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.1%, unchanged from the previous month[19] - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 23.6% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the real estate market[19] Industrial Production - In June, the industrial added value grew by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.0% but down from 5.6% in May[10] - The service sector maintained stability with a production index growth of 4.7% in June, compared to 4.8% in May[5] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include international geopolitical tensions, overseas financial events, and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[5]