鲍威尔：警惕中性利率上升！市场，9月降息！

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell's testimony is perceived as "dovish," indicating a potential interest rate cut in September[1] - The market is beginning to accept a new economic paradigm with inflation and growth rates above 2%[2] - Powell highlighted that the neutral interest rate has risen, suggesting that policy rates may need to remain elevated for a longer period[4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The discussion around the neutral interest rate reflects a fundamental shift in views on the U.S. economy[14] - Inflation is unlikely to return to 2% or below, and economic growth is expected to stay above 2%[28] - The era of low interest rates for the dollar is considered over, indicating a shift in monetary policy[28] Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock market's strong performance may be a response to Powell's dovish stance[1] - There is a growing consensus between the market and the Federal Reserve regarding higher neutral rates and inflation targets[36] - The market is prepared for a potential rate cut, but the path may not be as straightforward as anticipated[36]