BABA(09988) 国泰君安·2024-07-15 23:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares (9988 HK) with a FY2025 target price of 94 HKD [1][24] Core Views - Alibaba's FY25 Q1 revenue is expected to reach 2521 billion RMB, up 8% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 374 billion RMB and a net profit margin of 14 8% [1] - The report slightly adjusts Alibaba's FY2025E-FY2027E revenue forecasts to 10,170/11,008/11,689 billion RMB (previously 10,278/11,182/11,870 billion RMB) and adjusted net profit to 1,520/1,690/1,804 billion RMB (previously 1,535/1,715/1,831 billion RMB) [1][7] - The company's 6-month share repurchase reached a record high of 5 8 billion USD, with 261 billion USD remaining in the repurchase quota valid until March 2027 [1] Business Segments - Taobao Group's GMV is expected to grow 5 5% YoY in FY25 Q1, driven by double-digit growth during the 618 shopping festival [1] - International commerce revenue is projected to increase 30% YoY to 28 9 billion RMB in FY25 Q1, with potential monetization rate improvement due to the partnership with Brazilian retailer Magalu [1] - Cloud intelligence revenue is forecasted to grow 5% YoY to 26 4 billion RMB in FY25 Q1, with a significant increase in enterprise customers using AI services [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's FY2023 revenue was 868 687 billion RMB, with a YoY growth of 1 8%, and is expected to grow 8 3% in FY2024 to 941 168 billion RMB [4] - The company's non-GAAP net profit for FY2023 was 141 379 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 16%, and is projected to reach 180 425 billion RMB by FY2027 [4] - Alibaba's cash and cash equivalents increased from 229 510 billion RMB in FY2023 to 310 850 billion RMB in FY2024, and are expected to reach 768 964 billion RMB by FY2027 [9] Strategic Developments - Alibaba is progressing with its dual primary listing in Hong Kong, expected to be completed by the end of August 2024, potentially enabling inclusion in the Stock Connect program as early as September 2024 [1] - The company's focus on user experience and price competitiveness in the Taobao Group segment has shown initial results, with potential for monetization rate improvement as the full-site promotion tool expands [7]