2季度业绩预览：《三谋》拉动游戏收入加速增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $20.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current closing price of $16.71 [1][38]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q2 2024 by 1% to RMB 6.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, primarily driven by better-than-expected performance from new games [1]. - The report anticipates a gross margin expansion of 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to 29%, attributed to economies of scale and an increased proportion of advertising revenue [1]. - The adjusted net loss for the company is expected to narrow to RMB 330 million, a 66% reduction compared to the same period last year [1]. Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 26.6 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with mobile gaming revenue expected to reach RMB 5.4 billion, a 34% increase [13][36]. - The report highlights that the game "Sanmou" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, accounting for 26% and 43% of game income in 2024 and 2025, respectively [36]. Financial Performance - The report outlines a forecast for total revenue growth from RMB 22.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 30.2 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.6% [13]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 3.4 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025 [13]. Market Position and Strategy - The report emphasizes the company's focus on enhancing its advertising infrastructure and expanding its game portfolio, particularly in traditional genres like RPGs and card games [12]. - The advertising revenue from key sectors such as gaming, digital appliances, and online education has shown significant growth, with increases of 30%, 50%, and 100%, respectively [12].