2024年6月经济数据点评：供需两弱

Consumption Data - In June, retail sales of goods grew by 1.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest growth since August of the previous year[4] - Service retail sales increased by 7.5% year-on-year in June, with dining revenue growing by 5.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value[4] - After the "6·18" promotion, consumption growth in June showed a significant decline, particularly in daily necessities and cosmetics, which fell by 14.6% and 8.5% respectively[23] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment maintained resilience with a cumulative growth rate of 9.5% in June, slightly down from 9.6% in the previous month, and significantly higher than the annual target of 6.5%[6] - Equipment and tool purchases saw a robust growth of 17.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing 54.8% to overall investment growth[6] - High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 10.1% year-on-year, outpacing overall manufacturing investment by 0.6 percentage points[6] Industrial Performance - In June, the industrial added value growth rate was 5.3%, down from 5.6% in the previous month, indicating a supply-demand imbalance[25] - The industrial production-sales rate fell by 2.1 percentage points to 94.5%, suggesting that supply remains stronger than demand[25] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed a significant increase, with a 7.8% year-on-year growth in added value, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the overall industrial growth rate[25] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in the second quarter was weaker than expected, with a GDP growth rate of 4.7%, down from 5.3% in the first quarter[49] - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased to 3.9% in June, aligning with expectations[50] - Real estate development investment in June saw a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, with funding sources down by 22.6%[42]