XIAOMI(01810) 国泰君安·2024-07-17 01:31Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of HKD 20.0 [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates stable growth in Xiaomi's smartphone business, continued growth in IoT and internet services, and the initiation of revenue generation from the automotive business. The adjusted net profit for FY24Q2 is expected to be RMB 4.35 billion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue for FY2024 and FY2025 is adjusted to RMB 337 billion and RMB 384.5 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 24.4% and 14.1%. The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 19.6 billion and RMB 20.2 billion, with year-on-year growth of 1.8% and 3.1% [4][8]. Q2 FY24 Performance Expectations - For FY24Q2, the expected revenue is RMB 86.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.4%. The smartphone revenue is projected at RMB 45.7 billion (up 25% YoY), IoT revenue at RMB 24.9 billion (up 12% YoY), and internet services revenue at RMB 8 billion (up 7.5% YoY) [4][8]. Automotive Business Insights - Xiaomi's automotive business is expected to deliver over 25,000 units in FY24Q2, generating more than RMB 6 billion in revenue. The projected delivery volumes for 2024 and 2025 are 111,000 units and 195,000 units, with corresponding revenues of RMB 27.8 billion and RMB 58.9 billion. However, a loss of RMB 11 billion is anticipated for the automotive business in 2024 due to initial R&D and operational costs [4][8][9]. Smartphone Business Analysis - The smartphone segment is expected to maintain a market share of 15% in China, with a stable performance across low-end, mid-range, and high-end models. Xiaomi's competitive edge lies in its technological innovation at comparable price points and successful expansion into overseas markets [4][8]. IoT and Internet Services Growth - The IoT business is projected to generate RMB 24.9 billion in FY24Q2, benefiting from peak air conditioning sales. Xiaomi's R&D expenditure reached RMB 19.1 billion in 2023, supporting continuous innovation in IoT products. The internet services segment is expected to earn RMB 8 billion in FY24Q2, driven by a strong user base and enhanced platform efficiency [4][9].