医药行业2024年中期策略：估值再平衡逐步完成，内需的性价比、出海的必然性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of B for the pharmaceutical industry in 2024 [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the valuation rebalancing is gradually completing, with a focus on cost-effectiveness in domestic demand and the necessity of going global for companies in the pharmaceutical sector [1][10] - The deepening aging population in China is expected to create significant opportunities in the silver economy, with a strong emphasis on high cost-performance products and services [10] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low valuation level, suggesting potential for recovery and excess returns compared to the broader market [10][12] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The valuation rebalancing process is nearing completion after a six-year cycle of expansion and contraction, with the A-share pharmaceutical index experiencing a 112% increase from January 2019 to December 2020, followed by a 56.25% decline from February 2021 to June 2024 [10][12] - The current PE ratio for the A-share pharmaceutical sector is 24.87, indicating a low valuation compared to the past decade [10] Domestic Demand - The report emphasizes that the aging population will lead to increased demand for high cost-performance products, with a focus on generic drugs and innovative drugs that have undergone national medical insurance negotiations [10][12] - The trend of medical device procurement is pushing domestic products to replace imports, and retail pharmacies are expected to take on more prescription drug sales [10][12] Going Global - Chinese raw material drug companies are increasingly participating in global competition, with many small and medium-sized CXO companies finding opportunities in overseas markets despite geopolitical challenges [11][12] - The report notes that the high-end customized medical consumables outsourcing industry is entering a growth phase, with leading companies receiving orders from multinational medical device giants [11][12] Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential in various segments: - For innovative and generic drugs, 京新药业 (Jingxin Pharmaceutical) is highlighted [12] - For raw materials, 川宁生物 (Chuaning Biological) and 普洛药业 (Pro Pharmaceutical) are recommended [12] - For blood products, 博雅生物 (Boyuan Biological) is favored due to expected increases in plasma collection and new product launches [12] - For traditional Chinese medicine, 健民集团 (Jianmin Group) is recommended due to the increase in the number of traditional Chinese medicines in the new essential drug directory [12]