GYBYS(SH:600332) Great Wall Securities·2024-07-17 10:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in its core profit segments, with potential from the planned listing of its commercial segment on the New Third Board, and opportunities arising from state-owned enterprise reforms [1][8] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 75.515 billion CNY in 2023 to 91.125 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.056 billion CNY in 2023 to 5.665 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 12.1% [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to stabilize around 12% over the next few years [1] Business Segments Core Asset Profitability - The company has a strong portfolio in the pharmaceutical sector, with significant contributions from its traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine segments, which are expected to support stable revenue growth [2][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine segment is anticipated to maintain a double-digit growth rate, while the chemical medicine segment is facing challenges due to centralized procurement policies [19][24] Commercial Segment - The commercial segment, Guangzhou Medicine, has shown consistent revenue and profit growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.0% in revenue and 15.6% in net profit from 2018 to 2023 [3][29] - The company plans to list Guangzhou Medicine on the New Third Board to expand its financing channels [3][31] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The company is positioned as a key player in the ongoing state-owned enterprise reform, with potential for improved operational efficiency and higher dividend payouts [4][33] Profit Forecast - The company expects net profits of 45.45 billion CNY, 50.79 billion CNY, and 56.65 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [39] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.80 CNY, 3.12 CNY, and 3.48 CNY for the same period [39]