中原证券晨会聚焦

Core Insights - The report highlights a stable economic recovery in China, with GDP growth of 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by a 5.8% increase in the secondary industry and a 4.6% increase in the tertiary industry [5][10][21] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with defensive sectors leading the gains, while the overall market remains at a low valuation level, making it suitable for medium to long-term investments [5][24][25] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,974.01 with a slight increase of 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.59% to 8,801.62 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 12.72 and 27.73, respectively, indicating that the market is still undervalued compared to historical averages [10][24] Economic Indicators - In June 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.8%, showing a narrowing decline [21][23] - The total import and export value in the first half of 2024 increased by 6.1%, with exports growing by 6.9% and imports by 5.2% [21] Industry Analysis - The agricultural sector, particularly pig farming, is seeing a recovery in profitability, with the average price of pigs in June 2024 reaching 18.44 CNY/kg, a year-on-year increase of 28.77% [28][29] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new growth cycle, driven by demand from AI applications, with a 19.3% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales in May 2024 [32] - The electric power and public utilities sector is expected to perform well in 2024, supported by ongoing market reforms and stable earnings from leading companies [18][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as chips, communication, cloud computing, and renewable energy for potential investment opportunities [21][23] - In the pig farming sector, companies like Muyuan Foods and Da Bei Nong are recommended due to their favorable valuation and growth prospects [28][29] - For the semiconductor industry, companies involved in AI applications and high-performance computing are highlighted as key investment targets [32]