Investment Rating - The report updates the target price to HKD 9.16, representing a 17% upside from the current price of HKD 7.85, and assigns a "Hold" rating [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to incur a loss of HKD 7.8 billion to HKD 9.5 billion in the first half of 2024, compared to a profit of HKD 47.59 billion in the same period last year. Despite a 50% year-on-year increase in polysilicon sales volume and a 30% decrease in production costs, the average selling price of polysilicon has significantly dropped due to market supply and demand changes [4][9]. - The current inventory of silicon materials remains high, with prices stabilizing at around HKD 34 per KG for monocrystalline re-investment materials and HKD 32 per KG for monocrystalline dense materials. A price rebound is expected only after inventory levels drop below 150,000 tons [5][10]. - Recent regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry by increasing the self-funding ratio for new and expanded projects from 20% to 30%, likely delaying many projects in the current loss-making environment [6][11]. Financial Summary - As of July 16, 2024, the company has a total market capitalization of HKD 11,226 million and total assets of HKD 85,929 million. The net asset value per share is HKD 27.87 [2][15]. - The company reported a revenue of HKD 37,541 million in 2022, with a projected decline of 18.1% in 2023 and a further decline of 31.9% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 34.3% in 2025 [7][15].
新特能源：上半年盈警，静待硅料价格穿越周期底部