新特能源（1799.HK） 2025-06-05 星期四 | 研究部 | | --- | | 姓名：杨义琼 | | --- | | SFC：AXU943 | | 电话：0755-21516065 | | Email：yangyq@gyzq.com.hk | 买入 多重利空释放，静待多晶硅供需改善 | 目标价： | 5.66 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现 价： | 4.30 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | 32% | | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-6-4 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 4.30 | | 总股本（亿股） | 14.3 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 61 | | 净资产（亿元） | 353 | | 总资产（亿元） | 817 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 13.5/3.78 | | 每股净资产（元） | 22.93 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 特变电工股份有限公司 (66.60%) 新疆特变电工集团(6.07%) 上海宁泉资产管理 (3.72%) 相关报告 深度报告-20211119 更新报告 ...

| 目标价： | 5.66 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现 价： | 4.30 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | 32% | | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-6-4 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 4.30 | | 总股本（亿股） | 14.3 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 61 | | 净资产（亿元） | 353 | | 总资产（亿元） | 817 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 13.5/3.78 | | 每股净资产（元） | 22.93 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 特变电工股份有限公司 (66.60%) 新疆特变电工集团(6.07%) 上海宁泉资产管理 (3.72%) 相关报告 深度报告-20211119 更新报告-20211213 更新报告-20220630/0908 更新报告-20230417/0818/0918 更新报告-20240717 | 研究部 | | --- | | 姓名：杨义琼 | | --- | | SFC：AXU943 | | 电话：0755-21516065 | | Email：yan ...

（於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 股票代號：1799 年度報告 2024 C M Y CM MY CY CMY K ai17453092488_Xinte Energy AR2024 Cover V03B_CHI 20mm OP.pdf 1 22/4/2025 下午4:07 目錄 | 公司資料 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 釋義 | 4 | | 財務摘要 | 11 | | 董事長致辭 | 13 | | 管理層討論及分析 | 15 | | 董事、監事及高級管理層履歷 | 42 | | 董事會報告 | 48 | | 監事會報告 | 74 | | 企業管治報告 | 76 | | 財務資料 | 100 | 2 新特能源股份有限公司 董事 執行董事 張建新先生 （董事長） 楊曉東先生 （於2024年9月6日獲委任） 呼維軍先生 （於2024年6月18日獲委任） 銀波先生 （於2024年6月17日辭任） 夏進京先生 （於2024年6月18日退任） 孔營女士 （於2024年6月18日獲委任為非執行董事， 於2024年6月27日獲調任為執行董事，於2025年 3月14日辭任） 非執行董事 張新先生 黃 ...

Financial Performance - For the three months ending March 31, 2025, the group achieved operating revenue of RMB 3,198.89 million[3] - The operating cost for the same period was RMB 3,006.23 million, resulting in a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 263.01 million[3] Assets - As of March 31, 2025, the total assets of the group amounted to RMB 82,298.15 million[3]

金融界 2025 年 4 月 18 日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，新特能源股份有限公司申请一项名为"一种 两步法钙钛矿前驱体溶液、金属卤化物钙钛矿薄膜钙钛矿太阳电池及其制备方法"的专利，公开号 CN 119836202 A，申请日期为 2025 年 1 月。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开一种两步法钙钛矿前驱体溶液、金属卤化物钙钛矿薄膜、钙钛矿太阳电池及 其制备方法，其中，所述两步法钙钛矿前驱体溶液的制备方法包括：S101，掺杂有巯基噻唑的金属卤 化物前驱体溶液制备步骤：将金属卤化物材料溶解到第一溶剂中，制得金属卤化物前驱体溶液，在金属 卤化物前驱体溶液中加入巯基噻唑材料，并进行加热、搅拌，得到掺杂有巯基噻唑的金属卤化物前驱体 溶液；S102，阳离子卤化物前驱体溶液制备步骤：将阳离子卤化物材料溶解到第二溶剂中，制得阳离 子卤化物前驱体溶液。本发明可以有效降低钙钛矿薄膜中未反应金属卤化物相，同时抑制水分对钙钛矿 薄膜的侵害，从而提高钙钛矿太阳电池的效率等性能。 天眼查资料显示，新特能源股份有限公司，成立于2008年，位于乌鲁木齐市，是一家以从事非金属矿物 制品业为主的企业。企业注册资本143000万人民币。通过天眼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][18]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.04 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 2.77 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1.09 by 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to produce 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, maintaining a production/sales rate of 100.2% [9][10]. - The average selling price for polysilicon is projected to decline further in 2025, with a forecasted price of RMB 37,000 per ton [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin from polysilicon will remain negative in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years as production costs decrease [9][10]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 6.28 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the polysilicon segment valued at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments valued at RMB 70 billion based on a 5x earnings multiple [10][12]. - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratio is only 0.20, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its historical averages [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operational costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s polysilicon production is forecasted to be 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease in sales [9][14]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments at RMB 70 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 84 billion [10][12]. - The estimated value per share from the non-polysilicon segments is HKD 5.24, while the total target price is set at HKD 6.28 [10][12]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 34.18%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.92 and a low of HKD 4.93 [6][12]. - The current price-to-book ratio is 0.20, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value [7][12].

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the group's revenue was RMB 21,212.98 million, a decrease of 31.02% compared to the same period last year[4]. - The total loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 4,079.37 million, compared to a profit of RMB 6,104.68 million in the same period last year[4]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 3,904.88 million, down from a net profit of RMB 4,345.03 million in the previous year[4]. - Basic loss per share for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 2.73, compared to basic earnings per share of RMB 3.04 in the same period last year[4]. - The company reported a net profit for 2024 was a loss of approximately ¥4.04 billion, compared to a profit of ¥5.12 billion in 2023, representing a significant decline[11]. - The company’s total comprehensive income for 2024 was approximately -¥4.18 billion, a stark contrast to a total of approximately ¥5.12 billion in 2023[13]. - The company reported a significant decline in profitability within the photovoltaic industry due to supply-demand imbalances and cost-price inversions[43]. Assets and Liabilities - The total current assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 28,632.84 million, down from RMB 31,520.39 million as of December 31, 2023[5]. - The total non-current assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 53,047.75 million, compared to RMB 54,409.06 million as of December 31, 2023[6]. - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 46,386.86 million, an increase from RMB 44,697.60 million as of December 31, 2023[8]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 32,793.34 million, down from RMB 36,413.04 million as of December 31, 2023[9]. - The total assets of the company are reported at 81,680,586,196.76, with liabilities totaling 46,386,860,952.15[19]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 11,663.08 million, a decrease from RMB 13,501.47 million as of December 31, 2023[5]. - The board recommended not to declare a final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024[4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 1,754.58 million, a decrease of RMB 12,616.91 million or 87.79% year-on-year[78]. Revenue Segments - The polysilicon segment generated revenue of RMB 7,750.01 million, down RMB 11,768.12 million or 60.29% from RMB 19,518.13 million year-on-year, attributed to the decline in polysilicon prices[64]. - The wind and photovoltaic power station construction segment reported revenue of RMB 7,457.20 million, an increase of RMB 1,189.16 million or 18.97% from RMB 6,268.05 million, driven by enhanced market development efforts[64]. - The wind and photovoltaic power station operation segment achieved revenue of RMB 2,349.70 million, up RMB 136.70 million or 6.18% from RMB 2,213.00 million, due to increased operational scale and corresponding power generation[64]. - The electrical equipment segment realized revenue of RMB 3,052.97 million, an increase of RMB 959.28 million or 45.82% from RMB 2,093.68 million, mainly due to a significant rise in sales of inverters and SVG equipment[64]. Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs for 2024 were approximately ¥22.86 billion, slightly down from ¥23.31 billion in 2023, indicating a reduction of 1.9%[10]. - The company incurred total costs of RMB 19,851.62 million, a decrease of RMB 782.17 million or 3.79% from RMB 20,633.80 million in the previous year[65]. - Selling expenses increased to RMB 685.61 million, up RMB 117.98 million or 20.78% from the previous year[68]. - Management expenses rose to RMB 1,178.30 million, an increase of RMB 190.59 million or 19.30% year-on-year[69]. - R&D expenses were RMB 367.03 million, up RMB 93.00 million or 33.94% compared to the previous year[70]. Market and Industry Trends - The average price of dense polysilicon dropped from RMB 58,100 per ton at the beginning of January 2024 to RMB 36,500 per ton by the end of December 2024, indicating a significant price decline[49]. - In 2024, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was about 277 GW, a year-on-year increase of approximately 28%[50]. - The cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy generation in China reached 1,450 GW by the end of 2024, surpassing that of thermal power for the first time[50]. - The transition to a market-based pricing mechanism for renewable energy starting June 1, 2025, introduces uncertainty in electricity pricing, potentially impacting revenue from power generation[110]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest in a 3GW renewable energy project in 2025-2026 to reduce electricity costs and enhance its green product manufacturing capabilities[119]. - The company is focusing on technological innovations in polysilicon production to reduce costs and improve product quality, increasing the proportion of electronic grade products[57]. - The company aims to enhance its production technology and reduce costs while improving product quality to maintain competitiveness in the polysilicon market[108]. - The company plans to strengthen its team for developing and operating renewable energy resources to control costs and improve revenue from electricity market transactions[111]. Governance and Compliance - The company has adhered to all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code as of December 31, 2024, and will continue to review and enhance its governance practices[122]. - The audit committee has reviewed the annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, and the audited consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with Chinese accounting standards[126].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections [2][7]. - The report highlights strong financial support from the controlling shareholder, which is expected to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting anticipated losses in 2024 but a potential recovery in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024, with a forecasted loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, and a return to profit in 2026 with RMB 1,534 million [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is expected to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below cash costs [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 102 billion [9]. - The target price of HKD 7.66 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 times for 2026, with the power station segment contributing approximately HKD 6.62 per share [7][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 14.02%, with a 52-week high of HKD 11.66 and a low of HKD 6.30 [6]. - The average trading volume is reported at 3.98 million shares per day, indicating active trading interest [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which could lead to improved financial performance in 2026 [7]. - The company is expected to reduce production to mitigate losses, with a forecasted output of 10,000 tons in 2025 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, New Special Energy (1799 HK), with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 [2][7]. - The report highlights that the controlling shareholder, TBEA, is providing substantial financial support to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which may improve the company's financial outlook in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024 with a loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, before returning to profitability with a net profit of RMB 1,534 million in 2026 [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is forecasted to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below the cash cost of production [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, estimating the value of the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion based on a 5.5x P/E ratio for 2025, while the polysilicon segment is valued at RMB 14 billion based on a capacity valuation of RMB 0.5 billion per ton [9][7]. - The total valuation amounts to RMB 102 billion, leading to a revised target price of HKD 7.66, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of 6.6x for 2026 [9][7].