KUAISHOU(01024) 交银国际·2024-07-18 02:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 55.00, down from HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.6% from the current price of HKD 46.75 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a slowdown in GMV growth for the second quarter, revising the e-commerce GMV growth forecast to 19% for Q2 and 21% for the full year, down from previous estimates of 25% and 24% respectively. This adjustment is attributed to a general market slowdown and increased competition in the live-streaming e-commerce sector [1][2]. - Kuaishou's advertising revenue is expected to grow rapidly, driven by AI-enabled marketing products, with a projected 22% year-on-year increase in Q2 advertising revenue to RMB 17.5 billion [1][2]. - The report projects a revenue of RMB 30.45 billion for Q2 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.4 billion, representing a 63% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023: RMB 113.47 billion - 2024E: RMB 127.70 billion - 2025E: RMB 143.03 billion - 2026E: RMB 158.26 billion - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 18.22 billion in 2024, with a significant increase from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 [3][10]. - The report highlights a gradual improvement in the company's revenue structure, which is expected to positively impact gross margins, with a projected gross margin of 55% for Q2 2024 [7][10].