东吴证券晨会纪要

Macro Strategy - China's Q2 GDP growth was 4.7%, slightly lower than Q1's 5.3%, indicating potential need for further policy support [1] - Industrial production, manufacturing investment, and exports remain key drivers of economic growth [1] - Manufacturing investment grew 9.5% YoY in H1 2024, driven by new quality productivity and overseas inventory cycle recovery [8] - Exports improved significantly, alleviating domestic demand pressure and expected to maintain high growth due to low base effect [1] - Infrastructure investment rebounded in June with over 10% YoY growth, led by central government fiscal support [8] Company Analysis China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888) - H1 2024 revenue declined 12.81% YoY to 31.27 billion yuan, with net profit down 14.94% to 3.29 billion yuan [13] - Q2 2024 revenue fell 17% YoY to 12.46 billion yuan, with net profit down 37% to 980 million yuan [13] - Hainan offshore duty-free sales dropped 29% YoY in Jan-May 2024, with average spending per customer down 22% [13] - Potential growth from urban duty-free policy and international travel recovery, with major airport passenger traffic recovering to 51-89% of 2019 levels [21] Sungrow Power (300274) - Secured 7.8GWh energy storage project in Saudi Arabia, potentially contributing 8-12 billion yuan in net profit [21] - Global energy storage demand booming, with Europe expected to double to 10GWh+ in 2024 and US growing 50% to nearly 40GWh [21] - 2024 energy storage shipments expected to exceed 20GWh, with US market share decreasing to 20-30% [21] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast maintained at 10.5/12.6/15.1 billion yuan, with 11%/20%/20% YoY growth [4] Fixed Income Strategy Financial Subordinated Bonds - Insurance subordinated bonds saw 49.32% YoY decline in H1 2024 issuance, with net financing turning negative [12] - Bank subordinated bonds issuance grew 153.6% YoY in H1 2024, contributing significantly to credit bond market [12] - Broker subordinated bonds issuance fell 25.76% YoY in H1 2024, with net financing turning negative [11] - Insurance subordinated bonds offer higher yields (3.8% for AA-rated) compared to bank and broker bonds, but with longer duration [6] Investment Strategies - For bank subordinated bonds, suggest extending duration for AAA/AA+ bonds and selective credit downgrade for AA- bonds [12] - For broker subordinated bonds, recommend focusing on 2-5Y AA/AA+ bonds with moderate duration extension [11] - For insurance subordinated bonds, suggest controlling tail risk while extending duration for higher yields [6]